Research On The Causes Of Intelligence Failure And The Evasion Strategies Under The Perspective Of Intelligence Studies

Intelligence failure is one of the important topics of information research.The research of intelligence failure can explore and discover the regular factors of information error,which can help to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of information analysis conducted by the information organizations,and it will broaden the horizon and the field of information research.The thesis is based on the research framework of “theoretical cognition——empirical analysis——problem solving”.And the phenomenon of intelligence failure is taken as the object of study.The analyses of literature and cases are the contents of the research contents.According to Handel's triple noise theory,Bates' intelligence early warning theory and Kelly's attribution Three-Dimensional Theory,the thesis makes the research from the three angles: intelligence organization,intelligence personnel and intelligence object.Through the content analysis,the causes of the intelligence faults will be found out.By analyzing the frequency statistic of the constituent elements and the attention degree of these elements which are drawn by comparing the literature cases,the key elements groups leading to the intelligence faults will be found.Subsequently,a questionnaire,which is based on the constituent elements of the intelligence faults,is made to investigate the police and researchers of public security information.By empowering the police and their researchers,the inclination of the elements of intelligence faults will be calculated.And then,the evading strategy of intelligence faults from the public security will be constructed.It is believed that,at the level of intelligence organization,the main factors leading to intelligence failures are bureaucracy,lack of system and mechanism,and unscientific allocation of resources.At the level of intelligence personnel,the main factors leading to the failure of intelligence are reflected in the stages of intelligence collection,intelligence analysis and decision-making,including the lack of information collection techniques,standards and methods,the inflexibility of the intelligence personnel's analytical ability and thinking mode,and the decision-makers' cognition differences on the information products.At the level of the intelligence object,the main factors causing the intelligence faults are the deceit of the intelligence objects and the secrecy of the action.Finally,according to the above-mentioned key elements,the thesis constructs an intelligence faults avoidance strategy system from the following three aspects: the perfection of mechanism system,the formation of critical thinking and the construction of the anti-intelligence ability.