Research On Safety Risk Assessment Of Social Security Incident Based On Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Nowadays,it is the frequent social security incidents that have turned out to a threat to China's social stability and people's life and property.This also brings increasing pressure to public security organs in how to maintain stability.The urgent issue that how to identify,evaluate,monitor,warn and control the risk factors of social security incidents needs to be solved.Therefore,it is indispensable to take further measures to safeguard stability,prevent unsafe social security incidents,strengthen the research of risk assessment of social security incidents,and establish a scientific and effective risk assessment models for social security incidents.This paper is oriented to the study of risk assessment of social security incidents by means of reading and summarizing relevant materials at home and abroad.It bases on some theories such as fuzzy set theory,Bayesian network and emergency management theory.This paper utilizes integrated use of literature research,case study,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods on basis of social learning theory,which benefits to further study of risk assessment of social security incidents,and on this foundation to build risk assessment model of social security incidents that based on fuzzy Bayesian network.It provides a scientific method to giving an evaluation and early warning for social security incidents.Firstly,this paper defines the concept of social security incidents through literature research,comprehensive analysis of the current legal provisions and academic findings.It has clarified the type of social security incidents as terrorist attacks,ethnic and religious incidents,foreign-related emergencies and massive incidents.Meanwhile,this paper has summarized what influences the social security incidents and divided into risk source factors,management control factors,attack target factors according to the risk formation mechanism.Then,this paper will put forward that risk assessment of fuzzy Bayesian that applied to the social security incidents through analyzing and comparing the present risk assessment method on basis of clarifying social security incidents and degree of match.Secondly,this paper has created a comprehensive indicator system of social incidents between the part and the whole,which upholds how the risk assessment selected indictor quickly and accurately in practice.Ultimately,this paper establishes a assessment risk model of social security incidents based on fuzzy Bayesian network,which tackles the problem of incomplete data and uncertain events in the risk assessment of social security incidents,and explains the causal relationship between influence factors.It also verifies the veracity and scientificity of risk assessment model of social security incidents that based on fuzzy Bayesian network by taking illegal aggregation event in Qingdao pindu as the object for empirical study.