Birth And Death Process And Influencing Factors Of Public Sector

The public sector is an important part of a country and its responsibility is to manage social and public affairs.The traditional view holds that the external environment of the public sector is extremely stable.Once the public sector is established,it will be difficult to end.Therefore,the public sector has the characteristics of "immortality".However,since the mid-1970 s,a large number of public institutions have been terminated in the practice of large-scale public sector reform in various countries around the world.These phenomenon has triggered public management scholars to study and question the survival and end of the public sector.However,most of the existing research focuses on the United States,Britain,Norway,Ireland and other countries with good data records of public sector change.In contrast,there is no database of public sector change in China.And the research on public sector change,especially on the institutional reform of the State Council,focuses on empirical description and logical exploration which lacks empirical research.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct empirical research on the survival and termination of China's public sector,with a view to explaining the reform practice and institutional changes of the Chinese public sector,and to providing international comparative study of different samples.This paper takes the institutional reform of the State Council as the main research object,and uses the survival analysis method to explore the influencing factors of the survival and termination of the institutions of the State Council from an empirical point of view.By reviewing the relevant studies on the birth and death process of the public sector at home and abroad,this paper divides the factors affecting the change of the public sector into two dimensions: the external political incentives and the internal characteristics of the sector.At the same time,combining with the structural characteristics of the administrative system in China,the theoretical analysis framework of the birth and death process of the public sector is constructed.Then,this paper makes a statistical description of the changes of State Council institutions(1949-2018).Based on the analysis framework,the research hypothesis is put forward,and the survival probability curve and risk curve of the State Council institutions are described by using the survival analysis method.And the COX proportional hazard model is used to fit the influencing factors such as the institutional age,institutional type,legal basis,institutional functions,institutional rank,power distance,political change and major political and economic events.The results show that institutional age,political change and majorpolitical and economic events have a significant impact on the survival of the public sector,and the impact of institutional type,legal basis,institutional functions and power distance on the survival of the State Council institutions will change over time.Finally,the logic behind the institutional change of the State Council is summarized from three aspects: driving force,influencing factors and institutional constraints.