The Impact Mechanism Of China's Population Aging On The Industrial Structure

China's population structure has undergone accelerated changes since 2000.Rapid deepening of population aging and the gradual decline of the "demographic dividend" has become a significant trend in China's demographic structure change.At the same time,China's labor costs are rising rapidly,especially under the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008,the development space of labor-intensive industries has been compressed,and the traditional growth mode is difficult to continue.The market has driven the macro-economy into a transition period characterized by "changing the mode and adjusting the structure",thus leading to the gradual optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure in a painful period.At present,China has entered a period of development in which population aging and innovation-oriented industrial structure optimization overlap.Therefore,it is urgent to coordinate these two kinds of development strategies comprehensively and effectively.At the same time,with the gradual establishment of market economy in China,the strict household registration system has been relaxed,which strongly stimulates the individual's desire to pursue higher economic income,better living environment and better quality of life.Individual's rational choice is breaking through the shackles of ideas and institutional mechanisms,thus releasing unprecedented spatial mobility and migration willingness.Human migration itself has greatly promoted the cultural and economic exchanges between regions,and played an important role in the rational distribution of labor force and the ironing of regional development disparities.Based on the above background,how will the changes in demographic structure affect the industrial structure? What role does human migration play in this process? This is the main content of this paper.Taking 31 provinces from 1993 to 2016 as samples,using fixed effect model,this paper focuses on the impact of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure.Firstly,population migration is introduced through interaction term,and the regulatory effect of population migration in the process of aging affecting industrial structure is discussed.Secondly,the intermediary effect method is used to test five one-way mechanisms of aging affecting industrial structure.Finally,the non-linear characteristic of aging affecting industrial structure is further discussed through threshold model.It is found that aging has a positive net effect on industrial structure on the whole.Specifically,the marginal effect of aging on industrial structure will increase with the increase of human migration.Aging accelerates the accumulation of human capital and provides human resources for the upgrading of industrial structure.Aging also promotes consumption of the aged,promotes the development of the aging industry,which is beneficial to the upgrading of industrial structure.But aging will reduce labor productivity and it increases the burden of social security,which has some hindrance effect on industrial upgrading.Based on this,this paper holds that China can make full use of the induced effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,accelerate the accumulation of human capital,release the vitality of human migration,increase investments in the grey market,and realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.