An Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of Aging Population And Endowment Insurance On The Savings Of Urban Residents In China

With the steady development of China's economy and society,the living quality of residents is gradually improved,the medical and health conditions are gradually improved,the continuous extension of human life span and the change of fertility concept lead to the low fertility rate,which makes the population age structure gradually aging and the population aging gradually deepening,thus bringing a series of pension problems,such as insufficient supply of pension institutions,pension related policy system construction is not perfect,difficulty in seeking medical treatment for the elderly,and immature mode of combining medical care and pension.Among them,the most important problem is the pension insurance.Due to the imperfection of the endowment insurance system,the elderly can't rely on the endowment insurance completely for their old age,so they are bound to guard against risks by saving.The phenomenon of high saving of residents is a prominent feature of China's economic development.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the effect of population aging and endowment insurance on the savings of residents by linking them with the savings rate of residents.This paper firstly expounds the concepts and theories of population aging,endowment insurance and savings,then makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the development status of population aging,endowment insurance and household savings with the help of relevant charts.Next,it makes an empirical analysis on the theoretical model.Adopted the provincial the panel data,selection of children's dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio,expenditure of basic pension fund,pension insurance rates as explained variables,the average savings rate of residents as explanatory variables,descriptive statistics were conducted on the data,and then static panel model and dynamic panel model were established.The estimation results are analyzed respectively to determine the impact of population aging and pension insurance system on the savings of residents.In the short term,the expenditure of basic pension fund has a negative effect on the average savings rate of residents.Specifically,for every unit increase in the expenditure of basic pension fund,the average savings rate of residentsdecreases by 3.51 units.The ratio of old-age dependency to household savings has a positive impact,which is shown as follows: for every unit increase of old-age dependency ratio,the average savings rate of residents increases by 0.06 units.The ratio of child dependency to household savings has a negative impact,which is manifested in that for every unit increase of child dependency ratio,the average savings rate of residents decreases by 0.02 units.From the perspective of long-term development,the development of the pension insurance system has a positive impact on residents' savings,which is manifested in that for every unit increase in the participation rate of basic pension insurance,the average savings rate of residents increases by 0.01 units,and for every unit increase in the fund expenditure of basic pension insurance,the average savings rate of residents increases by 0.5 units.The deepening of population aging has a negative impact on residents' savings,which is manifested in that the average savings rate of residents decreases by 0.08 units for every unit increase of children's dependency ratio,and decreases by 0.05 units for every unit increase of elderly dependency ratio.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward the following Suggestions:(1)Continue to build and improve the pension insurance system;(2)Adjust the family planning policy,accelerate the implementation and publicity of the two-child policy;(3)Develop the old-age care industry,respond to the national old-age care policy,and actively explore the elderly consumer market.