| With the steady development of the economy,people’s quality of life continues to improve,medical technology and health standards are also constantly improving,people’s average life expectancy continues to increase,and the total fertility rate is not high,making the population age structure gradually aging.This in turn increases the burden of social pensions and highlights a series of problems in my country’s pension security.As of the end of 2019,there were 254 million people aged 60 and over in my country,accounting for 18.1% of the total population.Among them,there were 176 million people aged 65 and over,accounting for 12.6% of the total population.my country is already one of the countries with the fastest population aging growth rate in the world.It is speculated that by 2030,my country’s population over 60 years old is very likely to reach 400 million people.Although the population policy has been continuously liberalized since 2013,the growth of fertility rate has not met the forecast requirements of the policy due to the difficulty of changing the concept of fertility.At present,my country is the country with the largest number of elderly people in the world,and a series of elderly care problems follow,such as insufficient supply of elderly care institutions,imperfect elderly care system construction,difficulties for the elderly to seek medical care,and immature medical care integration model,etc.The most important issue is pension insurance.With the continuous progress of the economy and the continuous improvement of medical standards and technology,the aging of the population has brought huge challenges to the sustainable and stable development of our society.This article first explains the concepts and related theories of population aging,pension insurance,and national economy,and then makes descriptive statistical analysis on population aging,pension insurance,and the development status of the national economy with the help of relevant charts,and then conducts empirical analysis.test.Select explanatory variables as old-age dependency ratio,child dependency ratio,pension insurance fund expenditure,pension insurance fund participation number,GDP as the explained variable,select 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions’ panel data for empirical analysis,and compare the data of each province Carry out classification processing descriptive statistics,construct a static panel model,analyze the estimation results,and determine at one time whether population aging and the pension insurance system have an impact on my country’s economic growth.If there is an impact,what is the size and direction of the impact.Studies have shown that the child dependency ratio has a significant impact on economic growth,and its impact is positive,that is,for every 1% increase in the child dependency ratio,the national economy will increase by 0.18%,while the elderly dependency ratio has no significant impact on economic development.But its general direction has a positive impact on economic development.The pension insurance system does have a significant positive impact on the economy.The basic pension insurance expenditure has a greater impact on economic growth than the pension insurance participation rate,and for every 1% increase in the basic pension insurance expenditure,the GDP will increase by 0.18%.For every 1% increase in the pension insurance participation rate,the economy will grow by 0.07%.Empirical studies have found that the age structure of the population is indeed an influencing factor of economic growth,but it is specifically manifested in the child population coefficient.Population aging is not a direct influence factor of economic growth;the labor force caused by the decline in the dependency ratio of children caused by changes in the population structure The key factors restricting economic development,such as population decline,high pressure on the pension insurance system caused by the rapid increase of population aging,and incomplete pension insurance system.Therefore,the most important task of our country at present is to increase the total birth rate and continuously develop the endowment insurance business. |
