Research On The Impact Of Population Aging And Urban-rural Income Gap On Housing Demand

At present,the main social contradictions in China have changed.Population aging,urban-rural income gap and housing demand are worthy of attention.With the end of the ’golden decade’ of real estate,the real estate industry has entered the ’inventory’ adjustment period,the supply and demand structure of the real estate industry has changed,and the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry has become a trend.At the same time,China began to enter the aging society,and the aging of the population has appeared nationwide;The urban-rural income gap of urban residents in different regions has gradually widened,and the regional differences in per capita income of rural residents are obvious.The impact of population aging and urban-rural income on housing demand is worth exploring.Based on the existing literature review,this paper selects more objective indicators to explore the impact of population aging and urban-rural income gap on housing demand.On the basis of domestic and foreign research,combined with relevant theoretical analysis,this paper constructs a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model consisting of three variables:population aging,urban-rural income gap and housing demand.Secondly,based on the PVAR model and combined with the influencing factors of housing demand,the control variables are selected to construct a static panel data model consisting of housing demand as the explained variable,population aging and urban-rural income gap as the core explanatory variables and control variables.Thirdly,the benchmark model of static panel data is expanded,and the interaction term of core explanatory variables is added to construct the moderating effect model and analyze its impact on housing demand.Finally,the panel threshold model is constructed to analyze the evolution mechanism of the adjustment effect.Based on the above model and the panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions(except Tibet)in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and urban-rural income gap on housing demand from different levels of the whole country,the eastern,central and western regions.The results of PVAR model show that there is a stable positive correlation between population aging and housing demand at the national level,and the negative effect is mainly between urban-rural income gap and housing demand.The impact of population aging on housing demand in the eastern region shows the evolution process of ’inhibition-promotion-inhibition’.The negative effect between urban-rural income gap and housing demand is greater than the positive effect.The impact of population aging on housing demand in central China shows the evolution process of ’inhibition-significant promotion-inhibition’,and the urban-rural income gap has a significant negative effect on housing demand.Population aging in the western region has a significant positive effect on housing demand,and urban-rural income gap has a significant negative effect on housing demand.The results of static panel data model and moderating effect model show that population aging has a significant positive effect on housing demand in the whole country,eastern,central and western regions.The impact coefficient of the overall national and eastern urban-rural income gap on housing demand is negative,and the impact coefficient of urban-rural income gap on housing demand in the central and western regions is positive.The coefficient of the interaction term(aging*if)in the whole country,the eastern and western regions is significantly positive,and that in the central region is negative.The panel threshold model is used to analyze the evolution mechanism of the adjustment effect.The test results of the existence of the threshold effect show that the double threshold model should be used for parameter estimation.