Public Goods Provision,Housing Price Increasing And Women’s Fertility Intentions Of Second Child

Facing the increasingly serious aging population,on October 29,2015,the government decided to fully implement two-child policy in China.The family planning policy which launched more than 30 years as a basic state policy was again loose,and the one-child policy finally ended.However,according to the preliminary statistics of health development planning commission,neither the effect of previous "selective two-child policy" nor today’s "two-child policy" is satisfactory,reflecting the facts that Chinese women’s fertility will to have second child or more children is very low.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically study the Chinese women’s second child fertility intentions and its influence mechanism.Basing on the facts of the status about Chinese women’s preference of second child,this dissertation has studied the influence mechanism of China’s fertility rate and women’s fertility intentions of second child systematically considering the Chinese style decentralization as a logical starting point,so as to improve and supplement the research on the influence mechanism of fertility.Besides,it is also expected to provide some empirical evidence for improving the acceptability of China’s decentralization systemother and the effectiveness of today’s comprehensive two-child policy.According to the survey data in recent years,the economic and time cost on birth are the main causes affecting fertility intentions of women and families in China.From the micro level,the influence and the influence mechanism of factors such as age,level of education,work unit type of woman and her husband and family income has got extensive research both at domestic and abroad,but the logical starting point for studying a country’s fertility rate should be traced back to the institutional level.This paper starts from the system background of Chinese style decentralization,exploring the effect of decentralization on fertility.At the same time,it considers institutional factor as the logical starting point,exploring what kind of public service allocation can we improve our fertility level by research on the impact of medical treatment,education,child care public goods and housing price increasing on fertility combining the consequences of the decentralization on social and economy.This has very important theoretical and practical significance.This paper proceeds theory and empirical studies from the following several aspects.First of all,this dissertation discusses the influence of public goods supplying on brith rate.Based on the empirical research of panel data formed in 30 provinces(municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions)except Tibet between 2000 and 2016,we find that improving the efficiency of supplying public services such as medical treatment and education will have a positive effect on fertility level.Under the background of decentralization,the local government can not promote the brith rate through increasing economy public goods,but the lack of livelihood public goods will be obvious has a negative effects on the brith rate.Secondly,this dissertation discusses the influence of child care support on women’s fertility intentions of second child.It shows support from grandparents will have a positive effect on the fertility intentions of women to have a second child in the case of the under-coverage of child care services and the high cost of private market.It reflects the truth that Chinese style decentralization will have a negative effect on the fertility level through the lack of supply of public services from the side.Further research shows,this influence is more apparent in rural women for the economic development and ideological differences between urban and rural areas.Because of the "treasure land" in the city,the child care support from grandparents bring positive effect only when there is no housing difficulties,otherwise this positive effect will be offset by negative effect from the housing difficulties.And the effect is also related to the maintenance burden,which is more obvious when the maintenance burden is lighter.At the same time,this dissertation discusses the influence of housing price increasing on women’s fertility intentions of second child.The result shows that the increasing price reduces urban women’s intention to have a second child.This effect is most obvious in middle-income people and is not significant in the high-income people,as for the low-income people,the impact was greatest.There is also difference between the impact of housing price increasing on urban women’s fertility intention in the steady rose stage and high rise stage.The negative effects on fertility will be even greater in high rise stage.Besides,housing does have a wealth effect on fertility,but the accumulation of wealth does not necessarily promote fertility because wealth has a collapsed U-shaped effect on fertility intentions.This shows that the crowding out effect of housing price increasing caused by local government’s reliance on land finance will predominante on women’s fertility intentions of second child under the background of Chinese style decentralization.