Research On Fiscal And Tax Policies To Encourage Fertility Under The Aging Of Few Children

In the process of the increasingly serious aging of the few children in China,the government has been aware of the impact of demographic structure changes brought about by the gradual decrease of fertility rate on China’s future development,and has made a series of adjustments to China’s fertility policy in recent years.Starting from2013,the one-child policy will be gradually implemented,followed by the universal two-child policy in 2016 and the three-child policy in 2021.However,due to the lag of fertility,the population structure will inevitably deteriorate in a short period of time with the increase of the number of elderly people and the relative decrease of the number of newborn people,which will become an important challenge for the Chinese government.At present,from the perspective of fiscal policy,most of the existing articles are quantitative research on how to encourage fertility,and there is almost no empirical research.Although there are a few empirical studies on how to improve residents’ willingness to bear children,most of them are based on housing price and other factors,and are limited to some regions and incomplete factors.Therefore,from the perspective of fiscal policy,this paper aims to provide some suggestions for China to formulate relevant policies to encourage fertility by studying how the income from the transfer of housing land affects residents’ willingness to bear,so as to promote the adjustment of China’s population structure and balance population development.Since it is difficult to directly link land transfer income with residents’ fertility intention,this paper attempts to use housing price,which is related to land finance and residents’ fertility cost,as a mechanism variable to conduct research.Before empirically,in this paper,the cost of utility theory,theory of marginal children choose,childbearing willing choice and the theory of quality quantity instead of four growth theory and fiscal decentralization,land finance two financial theory to comb,summed up the land transfer income through the prices on the influence mechanism of fertility intentions,as the theoretical basis of the empirical,and puts forward three hypotheses.On the theoretical basis,this paper collected the data of China’s household tracking survey in 2018 and the data of land transfer income and housing price at prefecty-level,constructed the binary selection model,conducted empirical analysis through Logit model and Probit model,conducted robustness test and heterogeneity analysis,and reached three conclusions.Based on the empirical results and the experience of foreign policies,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from three aspects of housing security,financial subsidies and tax reduction according to China’s unique national conditions.