Research On The Impact Of The New Normal Population On Economic Development In Shandong Province

China's economy and population have entered a "new normal" since 2010.In the nineteen major reports,it is pointed out that China's economy has shifted from high speed growth to high quality development stage,and is in the critical period of changing the way of development,optimizing the economic structure and changing the power of growth.In 2018,the government's work report also pointed out that we should stick to the general keynote of steady progress and ensure stability and progress as a whole.In the development of economy,the role of population cannot be underestimated.The trend of population development has great influence on the economy of a region.As a national comprehensive test area of new and old energy conversion,Shandong will have great significance for the future economic development by studying its new normal population.Shandong has shown a very obvious population new normal,and there are significant spatial differences.How will the new normal population affect the economic development of Shandong Province in the future? The decline in the proportion of labor force and the aging of population will have an impact on the growth of Shandong's economy.How will the population age structure change in the future? It is worth studying in depth.This paper takes Shandong Province as the study area,analysis of Shandong Province,the new normal population characteristics and spatial differentiation;using the econometric model to explore the new normal population in Shandong province and its impact on economic development and make a prediction and forecast of economic development under the new normal condition of future population changes of the new normal,providing scientific basis for Shandong Province in the future development of the population and economic development.This paper is divided into six parts:The first part is the introduction.It mainly introduces the research background,theoretical and practical significance,related research at home and abroad,related research reviews,research contents,research methods and technical routes.The second part is the theoretical part.This paper analyzes the concept of population related and the concept of economic related,and expounds the population economic theory put forward by various scholars in detail.In the third part,the status of population development in Shandong province is divided and the new normal nodes into the population are determined.The results show that in Shandong province since 2011 to enter the new normal population,mainly in the natural population growth rate continued to decline,the labor supply continued to decline,aging and the dependency ratio increased significantly,to accelerate the promotion of population quality and population urbanization is accelerating;the difference between the 17 city population development spacesignificantly,Linyi,Rizhao,Heze at present the population has not yet entered the new normal environment.The fourth part,through the time judgement of the new normal population of Shandong Province,describes the economic characteristics of the four aspects,including the total economic volume,the economic structure,the economic development level and the economic benefit,since entering the new normal population.This paper explores the impact of the new normal population on the economic aggregate,the economic structure and the level of economic development,and explores the function mechanism of the new normal population to the economic development.We get the following conclusions:(1)the natural growth rate has a positive impact on GDP,total investment in fixed assets,but the effect is not large,the proportion of labor force has a significant positive effect on the explanatory variables,and the effect on the import and export value in the GDP;the proportion of aging and dependency ratio the explanatory variables influence,the average years of schooling and the urbanization rate has a significant positive effect on economic growth;(2)the proportion of the population aging,the proportion of labor,dependency ratio and the average years of schooling that factors similar to the third industry employment proportion relation,the gap is not affected.Finally,we analyze the mechanism of the new normal population's role in economic development,and find that every factor of the new normal population affects the economic development through consumption,savings,human capital and industry.In the fifth part,Using the spatial econometric model to analyze the comprehensive influence of economic growth and get the correlation.We also predict the trend of new normal population growth.We use grey prediction method and logistics method to predict various factors of population's economic impact and predict future economic development trend.The results show that: The initial per capita GDP has a significant negative effect on economic growth.It shows that after the economic development enters the new normal economy,the economic development speed slows down,and the economy presents a slowing down trend.The birth rate of the growth rate has a significant negative effect on the economic development,the economic development has inhibitory effects on the fertility desire,rapid economic growth and promote the improvement of the urbanization rate,and the birth of a child will cost with the rapid development of economy and improve from this aspect,the rapid economic development the birth rate will further inhibit the increase in the growth rate of;The growth rate of the proportion of working age population has a significant positive relationship with economic growth,indicating that the growth rate of the proportion of working age population can promote economic growth.Despite all the significant tests,the growth rate of urbanization rate is significantly different in different models.In model 3 the urbanization rate growth rate significantly lower than model 2,the urbanization rate in the long term is always showing growth,smaller fluctuations in growth rates,while the per capita growth rate of GDP is influenced by many factors,the growth rate fluctuates greatly,resulting insignificantly lower level;The average growth rate of years of education can be seen to have a significant positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate,and the two are the same development.The growth rate of fixed assets investment is not tested by the significant level in model 3.The proportion of the added value of the third industry has a direct impact on economic growth,and there is a clear positive relationship between the two.All in all,It is concluded that the greatest impact on the economic growth rate among the population factors is the growth rate of the birth rate.From2017 to 2020,the total economic volume increased continuously,but the growth rate began to slow down.From 2017 to 2020,the total economic volume increased continuously,but the growth rate began to slow down.It shows that the economic development is starting to speed shift shift,from high speed growth to medium speed development,and to achieve high quality development of economic growth.The sixth part of the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions.From the aspects of talent construction,education construction,household registration system,elderly service and industrial structure,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for Shandong province to face the new normal population in the future.