| China has joined the ranks of countries with low fertility rate since 1990s,and therecent investigations reveal that chinese low fertility might be amazing. Take thefollowing for example. From the investigation of the reform of population and familyplanning, it is discovered that the advanced regions have gotten into the risk period oflowest-low fertility. Ranking the second in population, Shandong province has joinedthe regions whose TFR is smaller than 1.5. Based on the prediction and analysis ofpopulation developmental posture under the context of lowest-low fertility, this thesisproposes the suggestion to solve the new population problems for presentsituation .To a degree, it is of instructional significance and referenced worth to theformulation of 21st century population development strategy for both Shandong andother provinces.This thesis analyzes the implication of lowest-low fertility, population migrationand present situation in Shandong province. And on the basis of original date from thefifth census of China, it predicts the population developmental trend for the next fiftyyears and compares the population development in eastern, middle and western part.In the end, this paper puts forward some effective measures for regional populationdevelopment. This thesis consists of five parts.The first part is the introduction. This parts deals with the advance of lowest-lowfertility, the present research at home and aboard, the purpose and significance of theresearch as well as the research methods .The second part deals with the population transition, present situation andcharacteristics of Shandong province. This part analyses that from the followingaspects: population quantity, population reproduction types, population density,population age constitutes birth sex ratio, and fertility rate and population quality.The third part is the prediction of the population developmental posture for thenext fifty years in Shandong province. This part firstly introduces the regionalpredicting theory and mode, and then formulates five predicting plans by taking theinfluential factors into consideration;finally by analyzing and evaluating the results ofthese plans choose the more excellence plan.The fourth part is comparison of regional population developmental posture ofthe next fifty years in Shandong province. According to the result of the moreexcellence plan, this part compares the changing trend of population incease, laborforce population (consisting of labor force incease and labor force age struction),school age population (consisting of enrollment school of the right age and thepopulation of the school age on campus ), aging of population (consisting of grosspopulation and proportion of aged people, the transformation of population pyramid,bring-up modulus and aged bring-up modulus)of different regions in Shandongprovince;meatime it raises the population problems of the next fifty years in theeastern, middle and western part.The fifth part deals with the strategies and suggestions of the regional populationdevelopment. By analyzing the rising population problems, which might emerge inthe next fifty years in Shandong province, the author proposes the followingsuggestions for the regional population development: ①continuing stabilizing lowfertility rate, adjusting bearing policy pat and with measure. ②improving populationquality in an all round way. ③ sticking to comprehensive management andoptimization of birth sex ratio. ④improving the quality of labor force and promotingthe distribution the labor force. ⑤establishing the system of guarantee, which shouldbe highly socialized, actively dealing with population aging problems. ⑥adhesion tothe principle of sustainable development so as to the harmonious development ofpopulation, resources and environment.
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