Research On The Effectiveness Of The New Generation Labors Supply Change On Manufacturing Upgrade

For a long time,due to China's family planning policy,especially the one-child policy,China's population structure has undergone tremendous changes,the new population decreased year by year and the accelerated growth of aging population,leading to China's labor force undergoing profound changes.The older generation of labor force post 50-60s are in turn into the aging stage,and as the one-child generation of post 80-90s are gradually occupied the main body of China's labor market.However,compared with the post 50-60s,post 80-90s are affected by nuclear family less child,popularization of higher education and other factors,the new generation labors supply quantity,quality and choosing-job behavior,etc,have taken place profound changes,which will give significant influence to the development and upgrading of China's industry.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore how to adapt to the changes in labor force supply of new generation,as well as promote the optimization and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.On the issue of labor supply changes on manufacturing upgrading,this article elaborates the theories of labor supply and manufacturing upgrading.Firstly,as for labor supply,demographic dividend,the new generation of labor and manufacturing upgrading and other core elements,the article defines the concepts;as well as elaborating labor supply,demographic dividend,the labor cost of new generation,industrial division of labor,global value chain,industrial structure theory,industrial upgrading and relevant theories.Secondly,on the basis of the above theories,the author puts forward the mechanism of new generation labor force affecting the upgrading of manufacturing industry:there is a labor demand heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector,and the decline in supply of new generation labor force promotes manufacturing development,and the quality of new generation of labor supply could push manufacturing industry to be upgraded.Furthermore,this article takes 31 subdivided industries based on the 1995-2014 year's datum of the quantity and quality of new generation labor supply,technology,capital and sub-sectors of manufacturing,by constructing the VAR model,this article makes an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the new generation labors supply change on manufacturing upgrade.The results show that:(1)The impact of a change of the new generation labor supply quantity and quality on low-end manufacturing is significantly negative and the coefficient is large,low-end manufacturing industry has been difficult to follow the traditional comparative advantage;(2)The influence of the quantity and quality of the new generation labor supply on the mid-end manufacturing industry is positive,and the results of impulse response and variance analysis show that the comprehensive positive effect of the quantity and quality of labor supply on the mid-short medium term is still large,indicating that China's mid-range manufacturing industry in the short term still has a lot of room for development.(3)The influence of quantity and quality of new generation of labor supply on the high-end manufacturing industry is significantly positive and the coefficient is large.The results of the impulse response analysis show that the quality of new generation labor supply is remarkable in medium and long term,China's high-end manufacturing industry will meet development opportunities.In general,the test results show that with the reduction in number of new generation labor supply and the increase in the average years of education,low-end manufacturing has lost the traditional comparative advantages,but provided good conditions for the rapid development of high-end manufacturing.Especially in China's mid-end manufacturing industry in the short term,there is still a lot of room for development,manufacturing should not take a leap-forward model,directly from the low-end to high-end upgrading;but should be taken more suitable for progressive model,from the low-end to mid-range,then to high-end upgrading.Therefore,to adapt to changes in labor supply of new generation,through policy guidance,promoting manufacturing to the new generation of labor supply changes in coordination with manufacturing industry to upgrade in high-end trend.Firstly,it is suggested to further relax the policy of family planning,appropriately increase in labor supply,and guide the new generation of labor to form the correct employment concepts,leading low-end manufacturing transformation and upgrading in multi-channel way.Secondly,it is advised to comprehensively promote the decentralization,to create a good market environment and promote mid-range manufacturing enterprises to be more excellent,and through policy guidance,promoting them to develop along with all the way strategy and international trend.Thirdly,based on market demand-oriented innovation of the university education system,to promote human capital promotion and technological innovation,and to improve scientific and technological innovation system,innovation-driven manufacturing upgrading.