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Research On Risk Assessment And Early Warning Of First-class Subject Construction

Posted on:2019-01-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S Z Q ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330566486538Subject:Higher Education
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Research on risk assessment and early warning of first-class discipline construction based on Bayesian networks is a reverse research with respect to the evaluation of positive first-class disciplines.Why research "first-class discipline construction risk" ? This is because this helps colleges and universities to adapt to the time background of “World-Class Universities and First-Class Disciplines”policy: Under the “Double-First-Class” background,the government's resource allocation model has changed from a planned model to a flexible and competitive model,and the risk of discipline construction has been significantly strengthened.At the same time,the " Double-First-Class " policy is deployed as an important national strategy,therefore,the tolerance of the country and the general public for the risk of first-class discipline construction is extremely low.What are the advantages of reverse research in this paper compared to positive research? On the one hand,“the Assessment of Self-Improvement” which is led by universities can drive the impetus of discipline development.On the other hand,research on risk assessment and early warning of first-class discipline construction based on Bayesian networks can identify systemic risks that are difficult to find in positive evaluation.This study organically combines natural science and human science research methods,quantitative and qualitative research methods,with a view to help enrich and improve discipline construction evaluation methods.Based on the Bayesian network method,this paper conducts research on the method of risk assessment and early warning of first-class discipline construction,and constructs first-class discipline construction risk assessment model and risk early warning system,and then validates the method with empirical research results.And combined with empirical research data and systemic science theory,the paper comprehensively analyzes the functions of first-class discipline construction risk early warning system.Firstly This paper introduces the theoretical basis of Bayesian network-based risk assessment and early warning of first-class discipline construction:(1)With the study on the connotation,target and historical background of first-rate discipline construction,the paper reasons out the significance and connotation of first-class discipline construction risk,which is combined the risk theory;(2)The paper discusses the feasibility of applying Bayesian network to the research of first-class discipline construction in combination with probability theory and logic;(3)The paper details the principle and method of corresponding risk estimation;(4)The paper outlines the process and methods of first-class discipline assessment and early warning based on Bayesian network;(5)The paper briefly introduces the concept and construction of Bayesian network.Then,based on the above theoretical basis,the risk assessment and early-warning model for first-class discipline construction is constructed in combination with risk management theory;thus,the risk assessment and early-warning methods for first-class discipline construction is discussed.Afterwards,this paper conducts an empirical research on Bayesian network-based risk assessment and early warning of first-class discipline construction to verify the effectiveness of this method.The most important thing is that based on the theory of system science,this paper discusses the bias of positive first-class discipline construction evaluation research methods,and then clarifies the functions of the first-rate discipline construction risk early warning system based on Bayesian network with the data analysis:(1)It highlights the "organic" and internal organizational order of the first-class discipline construction system.(2)It can identify system risks that are difficult to find in the positive evaluation of the first-class discipline construction,including posterior risk,sensitively low risks,and structural risk.
Keywords/Search Tags:Bayesian Network, First-Class Disciplines, Risk Assessment and Early Warning
PDF Full Text Request
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