Research On China's Population Flow Pattern And Its Influencing Factors

Since the reform and opening up,with the gradual liberalization of the household registration policy and the weakening of spatial distance caused by traffic progress,China is experiencing the largest population flow in history.According to the Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of 2017 issued by the National Bureau of Statistics,the total population of the mainland in 2017 was 1.390 billion,of which 244 million were migrants,accounting for about one-sixth of the total population.Such a large floating population not only has a profound impact on China's social and economic development,but also has a significant impact on China's population spatial distribution pattern and urban scale system.In this context,it is of great practical significance to explore the pattern of population flow and its influencing factors for formulating various policies related to the floating population and guiding the rational and orderly flow of populationFirstly,on the basis of reviewing the literature and classical theories at home and abroad,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the distribution characteristics and formation mechanism of the floating population in China.Subsequently,this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the historical evolution of population mobility since the founding of the People's Republic of China,in order to form a perceptual understanding of the distribution pattern of the floating population.And based on the permanent population data of prefecture-level cities,we calculate the three indicators of law of the primate city,Zipf coefficient and Gini coefficient for quantitative analysis of the population distribution pattern of different spatial scales in China,in order to deepen the rational understanding of the distribution pattern of floating population.It is found that the population distribution in China has been in a state of agglomeration on the whole since 2000 in terms of various spatial scales.From a regional perspective,the eastern region is still the main inflow area of population,absorbing more than half of the floating population.From the perspective of urban agglomeration,the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan agglomerations are still the main places of population inflow.From the level of municipalities,not only the southeast coastal areas,but also the capacity of the central and western provincial capitals to absorb the population in the region has gradually increased.It can be seen that the floating population tends to flow into big cities dominated by provincial capitals,and this trend will continue for a period of time.Secondly,on the basis of the study of the study of population distribution pattern in China,this paper analyses the influencing factors of population flow,and uses push-pull theory,gravity model of population migration and agglomeration theory of new economic geography to select five indicators to measure the thrust and pull of inflow into cities.Considering the spatial correlation of the floating population,this paper uses the spatial econometric model to analyze the urban characteristics affecting the floating population,in order to deepen the understanding of the mechanism of the floating population.It is found that the size of urban population,average wages of on-the-job workers,industrial structure and per capita financial expenditure have significant positive effects on population mobility,while urban housing prices have negative effects on population mobility,but this effect is not significant in the spatial model.Finally,this paper combines the household registration,finance,land and other systems to analyses the main problems brought about by the current population flow,and finds that the current system of our country deviates from the trend of population flow,which leads to the dilemma of the floating population.Therefore,we think that we should re-examine all kinds of policies and systems related to floating population,promote comprehensive reforms covering household registration system,financial system,land system and government assessment system,and better guide the rational and orderly flow of population.The innovations of this paper are mainly embodied in the following two aspects:first,from the existing research results on the pattern of population flow nationwide,most of them are analyzed from the provincial level.Considering the increasing proportion of urban-urban migration among floating population and the rise of urban agglomeration economy,provincial data may not be able to well examine the change of population distribution pattern,so this paper studies the spatial scale of regional,urban agglomeration and prefecture-level cities;Secondly,the existing research seldom considers the influence of spatial effect when analyzing the influencing factors of population flow.This paper uses spatial econometric model to analyze the urban characteristics of influencing population flow,in order to better reveal the formation mechanism of population flow pattern.However,the spatial weight matrix used in spatial regression is subjective,which may not fully reflect the complex relationship between different regions.The results obtained by using different spatial weight matrices may be different.In addition,the study did not examine the impact of various non-monetary factors on population mobility.With the further development of the economy,the role of non-monetary factors on population mobility will become stronger and stronger,which is also a direction that can be tried in the future.