The Impact Of Technological Progress On Manufacturing Employment Under The "Machine Substitution" Policy In Zhejiang

In recent years,China's economic development is from the expansion of "quantity",gradually to the "quality" of adjustment and progress,especially as the economic development initiative of the manufacturing growth rate gradually slowed down,entered the "new normal." Among them,the loss of the demographic dividend and the rise in labor prices due to the decline in population growth and demographic changes are an important factor.Zhejiang is a major manufacturing province,the government has issued the((Made in China 2025 Zhejiang Action Plan???Zhejiang "Robot +" Action Plan?,and in 2012,the "machine substitution" strategy was proposed to cope with the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the rise in labor prices.The replacement of labor by machine will become the general trend of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.However,the impact of "machine turnover"on the labor market should not be underestimated.Will machine substitution Labor lead to a significant reduction in employment and increase employment pressure?This paper holds that the purpose of"machine replacement" is to promote the replacement of the demographic dividend by the technical dividend,to resolve the main contradictions and problems faced in the development,and to achieve industrial development goals such as reducing production costs and improving production efficiency by improving the automation and intelligence level of the production process.Although in the short term,there will be a certain impact on employment,but "machine replacement" will promote technological progress,in the established factor input level can improve output,so from the perspective of technological progress in manufacturing industry to re-examine the medium-term and comprehensive impact of"machine replacement" on employment will be found,Instead,the initiative will boost the growth of manufacturing employment in Zhejiang province.First of all,this paper combs the relevant literature on technological progress and employment and summarizes the current scholars' research on technological progress and employment.It is mainly divided into promotion,inhibition,two-way effect and technological progress bias.Foreign scholars have studied the advancement of technology earlier,and focused on the two-way effect of technological progress on employment.Technological progress can create both employment and unemployment,and affect the labor market through the combination of employment damage mechanism and employment compensation mechanism.Most domestic scholars take the perspective of the national macro level and compare the actual situation with the impact of technological progress between countries or domestic provinces on employment.Few scholars narrow the scope of research to a certain province or municipality.Then,this paper introduces the production scale,technological progress characteristics,employment characteristics of Zhejiang and the development status of Zhejiang's "machine substitution" policy on employment.Since 2000,Zhejiang Province has occupied a place in the international manufacturing market with its resource advantages and good geographical position.Technological progress is a key factor in its development.Despite the economic environment changes such as the financial crisis,the output value of Zhejiang's manufacturing industry has continued to grow steadily,and the degree of capital deepening has increased year by year,while employment has declined after the promotion of the "machine substitution" policy in Zhejiang.Zhejiang's manufacturing industry has gradually shifted from relying on labor to relying on automated production machines,that is,capital.The continuous improvement of production technology has greatly reduced the demand for manufacturing labor,but it has also been affected by the manufacturing industry's demand for labor skills.Secondly,based on the literature research on the impact of technological progress on employment and the analysis of Zhejiang manufacturing employment,technological progress and output characteristics,this paper defines the replacement of labor by machine and technological progress and the relationship between the two.Technological advancement improves production efficiency,on the one hand,it causes substitution effect,capital replaces labor to change production mode and labor productivity improves,and it reduces demand for labor and has capital bias characteristics,on the other hand,it causes the output effect,the factor productivity increases and the production expands.The introduction of the machine needs to be equipped with high-skilled labor to control the machine production,the labor demand increases,and it has the skill bias characteristics.On the basis of mechanism analysis,this paper improves the CES function to establish a model of technological progress,output,and wage level impact on employment.The panel data of Zhejiang manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2016 is selected for empirical analysis.In the empirical analysis,this paper first measures the technical progress level of the whole industry in Zhejiang Province as a core variable,and then carries out an empirical analysis of the impact of technological progress in the manufacturing industry on employment.The empirical results of this paper show that:(1)The improvement of manufacturing output level in Zhejiang Province has a positive impact on employment,and the level of technological progress and wages have a negative impact on manufacturing employment.(2)The improvement of the technological progress of manufacturing industry in Zhejiang Province has inhibited the employment of low-skilled labor,but it has also stimulated the demand for high-skilled labor in manufacturing.The production mode has gradually shifted from relying on low-end cheap labor to relying on high-end automated production machines.(3)Technological progress in manufacturing industry in Zhejiang is both capital-biased and skill-biased.(4)The impact of Zhejiang's manufacturing technological progress on employment is greater than the average level of Zhejiang's industry as a whole,and its inhibitory effect on employment is also greater.The level of technological progress in the manufacturing industry has been increasing.(5)The efficiency of the industry with higher efficiency is higher under the existing production technology level.The technical progress,output,and wage level of the higher efficiency industries are more affected than the lower efficiency industries.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper proposes policy recommendations for the research results of the two-way influence of machine substitution on employment.I hope that the research results in this paper can exert its social practice value.