Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On The Structure Change Of The Tertiary Industry

The intensification of the population and the structural changes in the tertiary industry are two major problems facing the Chinese economy at this stage.Since the reform and opening up,China has made full use of the labor force and structural advantages,vigorously developed labor-intensive industries,occupied the position of the world's manufacturing plants in the global value chain division of labor,and gained certain competitiveness in the international arena.However,since the 21 st century,the age structure of China's population has rapidly aging,the“demographic dividend” has gradually subsided,and the labor cost has risen.This has led to the impact of the traditional economic growth model that relies on the infinite supply of labor,which is followed by the transformation of the economic development model problem.China is in a critical period of economic transformation.The changes in the tertiary industry directly affect the economic development trend.Therefore,this paper mainly studies the impact of population aging on the structural changes of the tertiary industry,which is conducive to adapting to the new requirements of China's population and economic development.We should provide different solutions to the problem of aging,with a view to promoting the sustained and healthy development of China's economy.In this paper,the empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016 is carried out.The lag phase of the explanatory variable is added as an explanatory variable to the regression equation to establish a dynamic panel model,which mainly uses the system generalized moment estimation method.Combining the current situation of the development of China's tertiary industry,and referring to the existing research results,the income level,urbanization level,government fiscal expenditure and foreign direct investment of the tertiary industry are added as models to control variables,and the population is analyzed from the national and regional levels.The impact of aging on structural changes in the tertiary industry.The changes in the structure of the tertiary industry are measured from the proportion of the tertiary industry in the three industries and the internal structure of the tertiary industry.The proportion of the tertiary industry in the three industries uses the proportion of the tertiary industry's output value and The three industries' employment weighting is measured by two indicators.The internal structure of the tertiary industry is measured by the ratio of the added value of the traditional service industry to the value added of the modern service industry.The results show that from the national level,population aging has a positive effect on the proportion of tertiary industry output value and tertiary industry employment.The effect of aging on consumer demand promotes the development of modern service industry and is conducive to the tertiary industry structure.From a regional perspective,the impact of aging on the structural changes of the tertiary industry is regionally different.The eastern region has the highest level of economic development.The aging has a positive effect on the proportion of tertiary industry output and employment,which is conducive to the third.Industry development modern service industry.The central and western regions are weaker,the western region has a lower level of economic development,the level of aging is relatively low,the infrastructure is imperfect,and the impact of aging on the internal structure of the tertiary industry is not significant.Finally,based on the conclusions of the article,the following suggestions are proposed: actively develop the aged service industry,adapt to the trend of population aging,promote the structural transformation of the tertiary industry;improve the social security system,improve the old-age security system related to the elderly;and actively promote the tertiary industry Structural transformation,making full use of human capital,promoting the further increase of the proportion of modern service industry in the tertiary industry;promoting the transfer and upgrading of the tertiary industry structure.