The Influence Of Population Aging On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure In Manufacturing Industry

Chinese growth rate of export declined,the downward pressure on the economy is enormous,while domestic labor prices are rising,by the impact of the global economic rebound since the financial crisis beginning.The extensive economic developmen mode relying on resource advantages to participate in global competition and cheap labor to export cheap goods in the past times can not be sustained now.China is facing some constraint situations,not only from the current pressure of economic growth decline,but also from over capacity and serious environmental pollution that can influence sustainable development.At this time,it’s particularly important to carry on industrial structure adjustment and transform former low value-added,low-tech,high environmental pollution-intensive labor-intensive industries into high economic efficiency and high-tech industry with small negative effects.It can be said that the industrial structure adjustment,promote industrial upgrading,change the mode of economic development are most important parts of Chinese economic sustainable development in the future.On the other hand,with the economic and social development,many-year-implementation of family planning policy and child care costs are increasing continuously,Chinese population aging is getting heavier and heavier.Unlimited supply of labor,relying on the demographic dividend will be able to drive the rapid development of the economy a good time just like the beginning of the reform and opening up has gone,we have to face an increasingly aging Chinese society.In such a dilemma,we can not help but think:Chinese industrial manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading will get what kinds of influences from population aging? Is the effect good or bad? How do we face this influence and change?With this problem,this paper began the study of the impact of population aging on the industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry.First of all,this paper draws out the three effects of population aging on the industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry through the induction and logical derivation of economic theory,including the effect of labor supply under the impact of industrial upgrading from population aging,human capital accumulation effect and population structure Effect.On the whole,it’s complex impact on the manufacturing industry to upgrade from population aging,both positive and negative impact,the specific needs under specific analysis.Then,this paper analyzes the present situation of the population aging and the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry in current China,and analyzes the spatial correlation of population aging and industrial upgrading,and lay the foundation for the empirical test of spatial panel in this paper.In the part of empirical,this paper uses the generalized system moment estimation method of spatial dynamic panel to test the effect of industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry from population aging and the effect of spatial spillover.The results show that population aging has promoted the structure of manufacturing industry as a whole upgrade level,and this effect is significantly greater in the central and western regions than in the eastern region.Finally,based on the results of theoretical,empirical analysis and current situation of our country,this paper puts forward some useful policy suggestions.