Research On The Impact Of My Country's Population Aging On The Upgrading Of Manufacturing Industry Structure

Population is an important factor in determining social and economic development,and the change of population age structure will have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of economic development.With the development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,the life expectancy of the population has increased significantly,the scale of the elderly population has been expanding,the strict fertility policy,and the birth rate has dropped dramatically,which makes the aging of the population in China more and more serious.After entering the new century,a new round of global scientific and technological revolution is coming.Competition in the international arena is intensifying day by day.At the same time,China has entered a new normal stage of economic development.As a traditional manufacturing power,China’s manufacturing industry has stood at the key point of transformation and upgrading.How to realize the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is the only way to realize China’s transformation from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power.Firstly,this paper combs the related literature on population aging and industrial structure upgrading of manufacturing industry,and makes literature review.Secondly,this paper defines the concepts of population aging and industrial structure upgrading of manufacturing industry,reveals the theoretical basis of the internal relationship between them from the life cycle consumption theory,Petit-Clark theorem and Hoffman theorem,and then carries out the internal mechanism analysis from three aspects:labor force structure effect,human capital effect and consumption demand effect:population aging leads to the size of the elderly population.Increased population will stimulate the rise of the aging industry and generate new market demand;the aging population will reduce the number of labor supply,forming a"reverse”mechanism,forcing enterprises to increase investment in capital and Technological Substitution factors;the aging population will affect the accumulation of human capital from the two aspects of education level and physical skills of the labor force.After a brief analysis of China’s population ageing and the development of manufacturing industry,the spatial correlation between population ageing and industrial structure of manufacturing industry is analyzed.The industrial structure upgrading index(TIND)of manufacturing industry is constructed with the proportion of technology-intensive manufacturing industry.The dependency ratio of the aged population is used as the index of population ageing(OLD).Through the test,the population ageing is obtained.There is a significant positive spatial correlation with the industrial structure of manufacturing industry.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial administrative units in China from 2007 to 2016,this paper establishes a spatial panel individual fixed effect model and uses maximum likelihood estimation method to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure.According to the empirical results,at the national regional level,the aging population has a promoting effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure.In the eastern,central and Western regions,the impact of population aging on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure has regional differences:population aging can significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure in the central and Western regions,and the impact on the western region is greater than that of the central region,but the role of the eastern region has not passed the significant test.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on population policy,industrial policy and development policy.