Research On The Impact Of New Demographic Dividend On The Industrial Upgrading Of Northeastern Manufacturing Industry

As the old industrial base of China,Northeast China has a relatively complete industrial system,and manufacturing is its advantage and pillar industry.However,in recent years,with the advent of the Lewis turning point,China's “demographic dividend”has gradually disappeared,and labor costs have been rising,which has brought huge impact on the development of Northeast China's manufacturing industry.However,with the development of the economy and the improvement of the education level,the “new demographic dividend” has gradually emerged,which can alleviate this situation.But what does the “new demographic dividend” of the manufacturing industry specifically include? How can it affect the industrial upgrading of Northeast China's manufacturing industry is worth studying.Based on this problem,this paper studies the impact of the new demographic dividend on the industrial upgrading of Northeast China's manufacturing industry,and proposes to promote the industrial upgrading of it's manufacturing industry.First of all,this paper sorts out the research literature related to the concept of “new demographic dividend” and industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry,and defines them.To sort out the differences and linkages between the new demographic dividend and the traditional demographic dividend,and measurement method about the new demographic dividend and the manufacturing industry upgrade.In addition,relevant theories such as human capital theory are sorted out,and the mechanism of the new demographic dividend affecting the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry is explored.To lay the theoretical basis for the following.Secondly,this paper establishes a new demographic dividend index system from three aspects: high-quality human capital,skilled workers,and foreign talents and uses the entropy method to measure the three provinces in Northeast China,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta region,and analyzes the current situation of three provinces in Northeast China from the source of new demographic dividends.In addition,by calculating the manufacturing hierarchy coefficient and total factor productivity,the manufacturing industry upgrades in Northeast China,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions are measuredfrom the upgrading of the manufacturing structure and the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Thirdly,the panel data model for the 2001-2016 data of the manufacturing industries in three provinces in Northeast China by province was established.From the aspects of industrial structure upgrading and industrial upgrading,the new demographic dividends were studied for the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the different factor-intensive manufacturing industries.And to study the difference between the new demographic dividend and the traditional demographic dividend on the industrial upgrading of the Northeast manufacturing industry.The study found that: First,the new demographic dividend can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the Northeast,mainly by promoting the absorption and digestion of high-tech by manufacturing enterprises,and improving the level of R&D of enterprises,thereby promoting the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.It can also enhance the promotion of scientific research input and foreign trade to the upgrading of the manufacturing industry,but its role is not significant.The new demographic dividend can also promote the upgrading of the Northeast manufacturing industry by increasing labor productivity.Second,the new demographic dividend can enhance the technological and management level of manufacturing practitioners,thereby enhancing the contribution of scientific research input,foreign trade and foreign direct investment to the upgrading of Northeastern manufacturing output value structure.However,the role of the new demographic dividend to the upgrading of the industrial structure of the Northeast manufacturing industry is not sufficient.Third,the new demographic dividends have contributed to the upgrading of labor,capital,and technology-intensive manufacturing industries,with greater emphasis on labor-intensive manufacturing.Fourth,from the perspective of upgrading the manufacturing structure,the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend has forced the industrial structure of the Northeast manufacturing industry to upgrade.From the perspective of upgrading in the manufacturing industry,the new demographic dividend has promoted the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the Northeast,but it is difficult to completely offset the negative impact of the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Finally,through the theoretical research and empirical results,this paper proposes to promote the industrial upgrading of the Northeast manufacturing industry.