Empirical Analysis Of Population In Henan Province Based On ARIMA Model And GM(1,1) Model

Population is a complex and comprehensive strong social entities,by predicting the population,not only for the social economic development plan to provide important information,also the possible problems in economic development to provide way,therefore,scientifically forecast henan population will help to make the correct policy,and related supporting facilities of the formulation and implementation of the outline.Since ancient times,the population of henan has always been in the forefront,and the population issue has always been a basic issue in economic and social development,which is related to a wide range.At the present stage,China's population development has undergone significant changes and is at a turning point.How to accurately grasp the population change trend and deeply understand the opportunities and challenges brought by this feature to population security and social development is of great significance to the study of long-term population development in our province.After analyzing the population data of henan province,this paper USES ARIMA model,gray prediction model GM(1,1)and ARIMA-GM(1,1)modified model to predict the population of henan province in the short term.First,the traditional time series model ARIMA model was used to simulate the population of henan province for three years.Secondly,the grey prediction model is used to simulate the population of henan province for three years.Finally,on the principle of residual error correction,correction using the grey forecasting model of ARIMA model predicted results,ARIMA,GM(1,1)correction model is established to predict the population data of the three years of simulation,and comparing with ARIMA model and grey forecasting model,the results show that ARIMA,GM(1,1)revised model accuracy is higher,so using ARIMA,GM(1,1)correction model to realize the dynamic forecast of population of henan province.Through ARIMA--GM(1,1)modified model,it can be seen that the future population of henan is still in a slow and stable rising stage,and the population growth rate gradually slows down.By 2020,the average annual population of henan is expected to reach 11.095 million,exceeding 110 million.In addition,the sex ratio of population in our province at the end of the year has been on the rise since 1978,but it rarely exceeds the normal range.In the next three years,the sex ratio will continue to rise slowly,which needs to be paid attention to,but not too worried.After a long period of family planning implementation,China's population structure and economic development,has achieved the expected good results.In the process of adapting the population structure to the economy,China has opened the two-child policy.Henan population is entering a new phase transformation after 2016,in the face of various situation,with the development of the population in our province must accelerate the implementation of population balanced development strategy,strengthening its ability as a whole,to grasp the opportunity and the challenge actively,realize the balanced development of the province's population,economy,society,resources and sustainable development.It is of great significance to constantly improve the population development strategy,give full play to the active role of population in social development,and realize the balanced and stable development of population.