| The aging of the population is a hot economic issue.The aging of the population has had a profound impact on consumption,savings,labor,and social security,which in turn has had a major impact on economic development.As a province with a large population in China,the problem of population aging is more prominent.Under this background,it is necessary to carry out research on the impact of population aging on economic development in Henan Province.Taking the aging of the population as the starting point,this paper analyzes the status quo,characteristics and causes of population aging in Henan Province by using the data from Henan Province in 1997-2016.It is concluded that the population aging in Henan Province is increasing and the population is aging.The overall speed is accelerating,and the dependency ratio of the elderly population is rising;the degree of population aging in Henan Province is lower than that of rural areas and the males are lower than women,and the age structure of the population is significantly different,and the aging and economic development are not balanced.After that,the ARIMA model was used to predict the short-term trend of population aging in Henan Province for five years.The results show that the population aging will further deepen.Then it analyzes the impact of population aging on economic development and the path that affects economic development.Using regression analysis,ADF stationarity test,Johansen cointegration test,Granger Causality test and other related measurement methods,the quantitative conclusions of this paper are obtained.Policy recommendations for this article.Studies have shown that:(1)The aging of Henan's population is not good for economic development.For every 1% increase in population aging,LNGDP will fall by 0.38%.(2)The aging of the population affects the path of economic development.The consumption aging has a positive impact on the per capita consumption level of urban residents.When the population ages by 1%,the per capita consumption level of urban residents increases by 0.88% after taking the logarithm.And the parameterestimation is more significant.This is because the current population aging in Henan Province is still in the early stage of development.It can be predicted that with the development of population aging,it will inevitably negatively affect the consumption level of urban residents;population aging is for rural residents.Per capita consumption levels have a negative impact.For every 10,000 degrees of population aging,the per capita consumption of rural residents will fall by 0.03%.(3)The aging of the population affects the path of economic development.In terms of savings,population aging has a negative impact on the savings rate.The quantitative relationship is that when the population ages by 1%,the savings rate will drop by 0.42 percentage points.(4)The aging of the population affects the path of economic development.In the labor force,the aging of the population makes the total number of working-age population and the proportion of the working-age population show an "inverted U-shaped" trend,and the internal labor force is aging and aging,which is not conducive to Increase in labor productivity.(5)The path of population aging affects economic development.On social security,the aging of the population increases medical expenses and pension insurance,and challenges the existing pension model.In response to the challenge of population aging on GDP,consumption,savings,labor,and social security,the following policy recommendations are proposed: to increase the impact on economic development by using the “demographic dividend period” and actively developing the old industry to increase Henan itself.Economic strength;for the path 1 and the path 2 to promote the "silver hair market",update the consumption concept,reduce the income gap between urban and rural residents to promote the consumption of residents,the level of savings;for the path of three to increase the supply of younger age labor,improve the supply of young workers Quality to tap the potential of the labor force;for the path four through the development of more reasonable medical services,strengthen the supervision of pension insurance,and develop mutual support for the elderly to strengthen the social security system. |
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