Research On The Path And Simulation Of Urbanization On Carbon Emission In Counties Of Jiangsu Province

Urbanization is an inevitable process of social and economic development,but it is also a key factor in the growth of carbon emissions.Urbanization in our country is at a stage of rapid development,however,the rapid development of urbanization is at the cost of the deterioration of the ecological environment.In 2006,China’s total carbon emissions exceeded the United States for the first time and became the world’s largest carbon emitter.In 2017,China accounted for 28% of global carbon emissions.Therefore,low carbon development of urbanization are imperative.To this end,China has proposed carbon emission reduction targets of “40%-45% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 compared with 2005” and “60%-65% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP in 2030 compared with 2005”.As a major economic province in China,the total energy consumption of Jiangsu Province reached 310.54 million tons in 2016,which was in the first rank of China.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the path of low-carbon development of urbanization.Based on this,this paper studies the status of urbanization and carbon emission in the county of Jiangsu Province,The path of urbanization on carbon emissions and the simulation of low-carbon development system of urbanization,in order to obtain more comprehensive conclusions,and provide theoretical support for Jiangsu Province to formulate urbanization and low carbon development policies.First,the IPCC coefficient method was used to measure the carbon emissions of counties in Jiangsu Province,then this paper analyzes the status of urbanization development and carbon emissions.It is found that:(1)Since 2008,the urbanization level of various counties in Jiangsu Province has been showing a trend of rising volatility,but the rate of increase has gradually declined;the urbanization level of southern Jiangsu,northern Jiangsu and middle Jiangsu has great differences,but the difference is narrowing;(2)During 2008-2014,the carbon emissions of counties in Jiangsu Province have been increasing year by year.The situation,after 2014,carbon emissions in most regions have declined;also,there are great differences in carbon emissions in the province;(3)The results of ESDA analysis show that there is a positive spatial correlation between carbon emissions in the county of Jiangsu Province,and there is also significant local spatial dependence;(4)Areas with high levels of urbanization also have higher carbon emission levels,so it is possible to preliminarily determine the correlation between urbanization and carbon emissions.Secondly,based on the theoretical mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions,the path analysis method is used to explore the path of urbanization on carbon emissions.The study finds that urbanization has both direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions,and urbanization mainly affects carbon emissions indirectly by affecting the development of population,economy,industrial structure,land use,technology and energy structure.Among them,urbanization has the most significant impact on carbon emissions through economic development,while urbanization has the weakest impact on carbon emissions through technological levels.From the perspective of the direction of action,urbanization will promote carbon emissions by affecting population size,economic level and energy structure.On the other hand,urbanization will inhibit carbon by changing the technological level,industrial structure and land use of the region.Then,in order to find an effective path suitable for urbanization and low carbon development in Jiangsu Province,based on the results of path analysis,the system dynamics model of urbanization and low carbon development in Jiangsu Province was constructed for simulation analysis.The simulation results show that in the initial state,Jiangsu Province will be able to fully meet the carbon emission reduction target by 2020,but the total carbon emissions will continue to rise,failing to reach the peak target.Therefore,various development scenarios of single factor adjustment and multi-factor adjustment were constructed,and different scenarios were simulated.Through simulations,in the case of changing single factors,it is found that the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry is conducive to reducing carbon emissions in the regions.Changing GDP growth will have different effects on carbon emissions and ntensity of carbon emissions.The faster GDP development,the higher the carbon emission level and the lower the carbon emission intensity.The fiscal science and technology innovation investment has a significant negative impact on carbon emissions and carbon intensity.The development of urbanization promotes the increase of population and the reduction of agricultural land area,which is not conducive to the completion of carbon emission reduction targets.In the multi-factor combination scenario,the carbon intensity under the coordinated development scenario is the lowest,the carbon intensity under the high-speed development scenario is second,and the carbon emission intensity under the low-speed development scenario is the highest,indicating that the coordinated development scenario is most conducive to the regional carbon emission reduction work.All the development scenarios have completed the carbon emission reduction targets of 2020,and the carbon emissions in the coordinated development scenarios and low-speed development scenarios will reach their peaks by 2030.Only the high-speed development scenarios fail to meet the peak of carbon emissions in 2030.Finally,based on the research results,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward from the aspects of the household consumption,the industrial structure,the land use,the scientific and technological level and so on.