Study On Long-term Residence Intention Of Floating Population Based On Nonlinear Hierarchical Model

With the development of social economy and the transformation of population age structure in China,the supply of labor resources has gradually changed from sufficient supply in the 1980 s to the current supply balance.After the 2030 s,there may be a shortage of supply.When making local development plans,cities at different levels will formulate different plans for the introduction of population talents according to their economic,social,demographic and geographical advantage factors.Since 2017,some first-tier and second-tier cities in China have issued relevant policies to stimulate the inflow of population and talent,forming a round of urban robbery war.After exploring the policies of talent introduction in different regions,we will find that the competition for talent will eventually evolve into the competition for population.So,how can we attract talent inflow,population inflow and stay for a long time? That is what we usually call come in,stay,sink.This requires an accurate understanding of the willingness and determinants of long-term urban residence of population and talent.For this reason,this study uses the micro-data of the 2016 floating population monitoring survey and the macroscopic data reflecting the urban characteristics,and uses the non-linear stratified model to analyze the determinants of the long-term residence of population and talent in the city.Chapter arrangement of this study is as follows: Chapter 1 analyses the background,purpose and significance of this study;Chapter 2 is the specific design arrangement of this study;Chapter 3 analyses the situation of floating population’s urban dwelling wish through multi-factors;Chapter 4 tests the floating population’s urban dwelling wish by using the non-linear stratified model;Chapter 5 is the conclusion,suggestion and shortage of this paper.It is found that occupational types and human capital possessed by individuals are the strongest determinants of floating population’s willingness to live in cities at present,and the migration experience of parents will weaken the willingness of migrants to stay in the city.From the urban level,the level of public services has a significant impact on the long-term residential willingness of the floating population.However,cities with better basic education have insufficient access to the floating population,which does not play a proper role in the willingness of the floating population to stay.Therefore,the suggestions given in this paper are as follows: speeding up economic development,improving the income level of the floating population and narrowing the income gap are the fundamental factors to enhance their urban residents’ willingness;realizing educational balance is an effective way to enhance their urban residents’ willingness;improving the living environment of the floating population is the key factor to enhance their long-term residents’ willingness;and realizing the social security level;Equalization is an effective way to enhance the long-term residential willingness of floating population,and the integration of transfer payment for migrant medical treatment is an important means to enhance their residential willingness.