Research On The Influence Factor Of Industrial Overcapacity In China

China's economic development has entered the new normal mode in an all-round way.The problem of overcapacity in the industrial sector has become increasingly prominent,and the industrial industry has become an important cornerstone supporting China's economic and social development and an important force for economic development.With the development of high-quality economy and rising production costs,the growth rate of investment and exports has slowed down remarkably.The quantitative development model that relies mainly on resource factor input and scale expansion is unsustainable,opening up new economic growth paths and forming New momentum for economic growth.Therefore,the national government has also issued relevant policy documents and adopted a series of measures to resolve overcapacity;enterprises are also actively cooperating with the government,while at the same time,strengthening management levels within the enterprise and increasing scientific and technological research and development efforts;The academic community is also committed to the measurement of overcapacity,the causes of overcapacity,and how to resolve overcapacity.Therefore,scientific and accurate understanding and measurement of overcapacity in China's industrial sector,and then explore the factors affecting overcapacity,has great theoretical significance for the resolution of overcapacity and the prevention of overcapacity.This paper considers the heterogeneity of the industrial industry is more obvious,gives a relatively consistent measurement method,and then analyzes the capacity utilization rate to study the degree of overcapacity.The analysis results show that the changes in China's industrial capacity utilization rate show cyclical and structural characteristics,and the corresponding overcapacity has the same characteristics;The industrial sector with severe overcapacity is an industry with low market allocation resources;Industries with insufficient production capacity are mostly monopolistic industries;The industrial capacity utilization rate and economic cycle fluctuations have a lag,but the trend is generally consistent.Immediately based on the perspective of total factor productivity,Firstly,empirical research on the factors affecting overcapacity is carried out from three aspects:enterprise,market and government.Empirical research shows that the improvement of total factor productivity will greatly promote the improvement of capacity utilization rate;Government intervention leads to overcapacity;The greater the proportion of state-owned enterprises,the more serious the overcapacity;Finally,it was found that trade openness and macroeconomic cycle have a positive effect on capacity utilization.Further establish a panel error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of total factor productivity on overcapacity.The long-term effect indicates that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between technological progress,pure technical efficiency,scale efficiency and capacity utilization,and it has a long-term positive effect on capacity utilization;The change in the total factor productivity decomposition of the light industry caused a multiple change in capacity utilization;the change in capacity utilization caused by the factor-factor productivity decomposition in the heavy industry was closer to that of the industrial sector;The short-term effect indicates that the increase in scale efficiency in short-term fluctuations has the greatest impact on capacity utilization,especially in the heavy chemical industry.On the basis of empirical analysis,this paper proposes countermeasures from three perspectives:government behavior,market mechanism and internal enterprise.Accurate and effective positioning of government behavior,weakening intervention,stressing the "moderation of the mean";accelerating the market-oriented reform process,improving the market mechanism;and focusing on improving the total factor productivity.