Analysis On The Effects Of Labor Force Aging To Total Factor Productivity

At present, our country is facing the population age structure deeply and constantly changing, the degree and the speedof the change have full beyond the world. According to the national bureau of statistics released data, from 1990 to 1990, 65 years and older in China increased from 5.5% to 5.5% of the population. In accordance with the standards of the United Nations(the ratio of the 65 years and older population to total population beyond 7%), our country has officially become aging. An aging population in the coming decades will always be the important factors affecting China’s economic development.on the other hand, after sustained economic growth over the past 20 years brought by the reform and opening-up and market economy system establishment, our country has entered a "new normal" economic growth, the speed economic growth begins to slow.Characterized by expanding inputs the extensive economic growth mode of unsustainable, economic growth.Break the growth slowdown spells, need to change the pattern of economic growth, increasing labor productivity is the fundamental economic growth.There are two ways to the improvement of labor productivity is mainly, one is to improve the capital labor ratio, the other is to improve the total factor productivity.However, the increase of capital labor ratio is limited, will meet the plight of capital diminishing returns. Total factor productivity is an inexhaustible source of labor productivity, can offset the negative impact of the capital diminishing returns, so is the enduring economic growth engine.Population aging leads to labor age structure aging, may seriously affect the improvement of labor productivity in China.Facing an aging population and economic growth to slow down, it is necessary for our country labor force aging and the relationship between total factor productivity growth and the empirical analysis, discusses the labor age structure change influence on economic growth.Therefore, this article is based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2010 in our country, using the method of DEA- Malmquist index, regional inputs of labor and capital as input, GDP as output, computing around total factor productivity.Empirical equation model is established through theoretical derivation, and join in the model of human capital, industrial structure, opening to the outside world, the government intervention as control variables, such as empirical research on our country labor age structure change on the decomposition of total factor productivity and its growth effect.The empirical results show that the labor age has significant effect on total factor productivity growth and labor than other age groups, middle-aged(40 to 49) Labour’s contribution to the total factor productivity growth is the largest.In addition, considering the industrial structure of China is undergoing dramatic transformation, and there are large difference between different industry labor productivity, simultaneous equation model is built up through theoretical analysis, probes into the labor force aging, the industrial structure transformation and the relations between and among total factor productivity growth, ageing labor force will be found by blocking the industrial structure transformation in the inhibition of total factor productivity growth.Finally, combining the empirical analysis results and the future development trend of the labor age structure, present situation of the industrial structure, population policy, etc., puts forward some policy Suggestions to cope with an aging population brings economic shocks.