| Having gone through more than 40 years of rapid economic development,China jumped to the second place in the global economy.However,China's aging population is deepening with the development of economy,it has led to the reduction of labor supply,huge financial pressure of pension and medical social security expenditure,which has aggravated the social burden,and then has a significant impact on economic and social development.At the same time,China is currently in a critical period of industrial restructuring and the transformation of economic growth mode.The government has repeatedly proposed in its work report that we should change the economic development mode which used to rely solely on factor input,and now rely more on Total Factor Productivity to promote economic growth.In the case of China's increasingly aging population,it is very important to improve the total factor productivity.Only by clarifying the relationship between the two,can we correctly understand the opportunities and challenges that the aging population brings to China's economic development.Improving the basic level of social security can not only alleviate the problem that widening income distribution gaps caused by aging,but also provide a stable environment for China's economic development,so as to achieve coordination and adaptation between aging,social security and economic sustainable development.OECD countries have a relatively high level of economic development and social security,and have entered the aging society earlier.China's current population aging problem is similar to that of OECD members,which shows that its aging policy is worth learning.Therefore,the measures of OECD member countries to coordinate aging,social security and economic development can provide a practical basis for China to deal with related problems in the future.Based on the relevant literatures at home and abroad,this paper studies the theory and influence mechanism of aging,social security and Total Factor Productivity,and theoretically proves the existence of social security mediating variables.Then it analyzes the current situation of population aging and social security in OECD countries and China,and makes horizontal international comparison and vertical historical comparison.In the empirical analysis,this paper firstly uses the multinational panel data of OECD countries and China,taking capital stock and employment as input indicators,GDP as output indicators to calculate Total Factor Productivity of 36 countries by using DEA-Malmquist method.Secondly,a mediating effect model is established to verify the direct impact of aging on TFP and the indirect impact of social security mediating variable on TFP.The causal regression method and Bootstrap method are used to test the mediating effect of social security.In addition,according to the social security model,this paper conducts a grouping study on the welfare-oriented and social security-oriented countries,and analyses the impact of aging on TFP under different social security models.The results of this paper show that:Firstly,the fluctuation frequency of TFP in various countries is relatively large and has no obvious rule or trend.Secondly,there is a negative correlation between the degree of aging and TFP,and a positive correlation between the elderly dependency ratio and TFP.In addition,the control variables like the government behavior and FDI have a negative impact on TFP,the opening-up policy has a positive impact on it,while the urbanization rate has no significant impact.Thirdly,social security has a significant mediating effect in the process of aging affecting TFP.The causal regression method proves that population aging has deepened the impediment to TFP through social security,while the elderly dependency ratio has further promoted the growth of TFP through social security.In addition to demonstrating the existence of the social security mediating effect,the results of Bootstrap test also show that there are other missing mediating variables in the process of aging affecting TFP.Fourthly,social security hinders the TFP of welfare-oriented countries significantly higher than that of social insurance-oriented countries.The innovation of this paper is to put the population aging,social security and TFP into the same framework for research and analysis,to test whether the mediating effect of social security exists.Investigating the relationship among them is of practical significance for the government,enterprises and individuals to improve social security,cope with the problem of aging and develop economy.In addition,this paper compares the traditional casual regression method with new Bootstrap method,and focuses on the shortcomings of the traditional stepwise test method and the improvement of the new method.In the empirical study,two methods are used to test the mediating effect of social security,which also shows that Bootstrap method does make up for the shortcomings and deficiencies of the traditional test method.Bootstrap method can make a better explanation of the mediating effect. |
PDF Full Text Request