Analysis On Aging Household's Loan And Family's Benefit From Agricultural Management Based On CFPS2016 Data

In China,the family agricultural production and management mode still occupies an important position.However,with the aggravation of the population aging trend,agricultural labor ageing affects the production and management of family agriculture,so it is very necessary to study the related issues of agricultural labor aging and family farming.Based on the survey data of CFPS in 2016,the status quo of China,s agricultural labor aging,the basic situation of farmers' households,the situation of farmers' loans,and the basic information of all agricultural workers are analyzed through descriptive statistics.From the perspective of agricultural products' total value,farmer's agricultural output-input ratio,and farmer's agricultural output-loan ratio,this paper studies how various factors affect family farming,and analyzes the impact of agricultural labor aging,farmer borrowing and the interaction between the labor aging and farmer borrowing on family farmingThe study found that the average age of family agricultural workers in China is as high as 50.5 years old,and the trend of agricultural labor aging is further aggravated;most farmers have no outstanding loans,and among the farmers who have outstanding loans,the loan gap is large;the first choice for farmers to borrow is family members or relatives,followed by formal financial institutions such as banks;among all the farmers,the proportion of men and women is basically the same;but the highest education of almost all workers is in junior high school and below.The modeling analysis found that the impact of agricultural labor aging on family agricultural management is negative;compared with farmers without loans,farmers' borrowing is more conducive to family farming management;but farmers' borrowing has not alleviated the negative effect of agricultural labor aging on the family agricultural management,which is closely related to the type of farmer's production.In addition,household per capita deposits,family courtesy expenditures,total value of family agricultural machinery,number of family agricultural workers,family members who do not go out to work or do farm work,and family farming accountants who are male have a significant positive impact on the total value of family agricultural products.Family courtesy expenditures and total value of family agricultural machinery can alleviate the negative impact of agricultural labor aging on family agricultural output.Based on the above analysis,this paper believes that the current situation of the aging of the agricultural labor force is very serious,and its impact on family agricultural production and management is negative.Therefore,it is necessary to face up to the fact that the negative effect of the aging of the agricultural labor force on family agricultural management can be alleviated by increasing the availability of rural household borrowing.This requires the government to further improve the rural financial system,especially to understand and solve the problem of rural household borrowing.The practical problem is that farmers have no financial problems when expanding agricultural production.