Analysis On The Spatial Distribution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of The Willingness Of Migrant Workers To Return In Anhui Province

Since the reform and opening up,a large number of migrant workers have entered urban work and life,while promoting urban economic development,it has also brought problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution to urban management.At the same time,it is also difficult to obtain the same benefits and social recognition as urban residents.Difficulties have prevented migrant workers from settling in cities,and the phenomenon of migrant workers returning has begun to appear.In order to alleviate the imbalance between urban and rural development,the state has proposed a strategy for the revitalization of rural areas,with the hope that cities will nurture the countryside,industry will nurture agriculture,and promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and rural revitalization.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further proposed that a multi-layered and diversified return-to-home business structure should be established to stimulate the enthusiasm of migrant workers to return to their hometowns,create more nearby employment opportunities,and cultivate a vital force for rural rejuvenation.Therefore,to understand the willingness of migrant workers to return and its spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors is of great significance to reasonably guide the return of migrant workers and promote coordinated urban and rural development.Based on the existing theories and related literature,based on the 2017 dynamic population monitoring data(CMDS),this paper takes migrant workers in Anhui province as the research object.First,ArcGis and opengeoda spatial statistical tools are used to analyze the willingness of migrant workers to return.Spatial distribution characteristics,including spatial statistics,spatial comparative analysis,global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation.Secondly,from the three dimensions of migrant workers 'individual and family characteristics,inflow characteristics and outflow characteristics,the binary logistic model was used to analyze the influencing factors of migrant workers' willingness to return,and finally the following conclusions were reached:The analysis results of spatial distribution characteristics show that:(1)The willingness of returning migrant workers in Anhui Province is only 1.783%,which is relatively low,of which 69.903% choose to return to rural areas,which has significant spatial differentiation characteristics as a whole.(2)A comparative analysis of the six provinces in central China found that the willingness of migrant workers to return inHunan Province was the highest,the lowest in Jiangxi Province,and Anhui Province ranked third.A comparative analysis of the seven urban agglomerations found that the willingness of migrant workers to return in the Yangtze River Delta city group was the highest.The triangular urban agglomeration is relatively low,and the Jianghuai urban agglomeration ranks fifth.(3)Both the global Moran index and the local Moran index are positive,indicating that there is a spatial autocorrelation in the willingness of migrant workers to return in Anhui Province;most cities in the Moran scatter diagram fall in the first and third quadrants.In terms of spatial distribution,the willingness of migrant workers to return has a positive spatial agglomeration distribution.Among them,the first quadrant is mostly cities in northern Anhui.The empirical analysis of influencing factors shows that:(1)from the characteristics of individuals and families,age,education level and marital status have significant effects on the return willingness of rural migrant workers in Anhui Province;(2)Income and monthly consumption,housing nature and housing expenditure,participation in basic medical insurance and basic endowment insurance,and customs and habits all have a significant impact on the willingness of migrant workers to return in Anhui.(3)From the perspective of the characteristics of the outflow,land security,local policy changes,and The idea of returning home to start a business has a significant effect on the willingness of migrant workers in Anhui to return.Based on the above research,relevant policy suggestions for rationally guiding the return of migrant workers in Anhui Province are proposed from four aspects:improving human capital level,encouraging returnees to start businesses,increasing insurance participation awareness,and enhancing hometown belonging.