Quantitative Study Of The Impacts Of The Two-child Policy On The Saving Rate

Since the two Two-child policies lauched in our country in November 2013 and October 2015 separately,the academia has studied its impact on various aspects of our society and economy.But in literature of various fields,there is still no direct quantitative measure of the actual effect on the variables such as the savings rate brought about by the two Two-child policies.Firstly,by introducing the latest data in 2018,the interference analysis is used in time-series analysis to judge the influence mode of the Two-child policy.Then the Leslie model is introduced to estimate the impact of the Two-child policy on the dependency ratio.On this basis,a dynamic life-cycle saving model is established,and the vector error correction model is finally used to obtain a quantitative estimation of the impacts of the Two-child policy on the saving rate of Chinese residents.The results show that as of 2018,compared with the One-child policy times,the Two-child policy brought about 5.32 million newborns to China,and eventually led to a decline in the household saving rate increasing curve of 0.54 percentage points.In addition,the short-term forecast(before 2030)shows that although the Two-child policy has not brought structural change to relevant variables,the trend of slowing down in the growth of the household saving rate is generally increasing year by year.In view of the empirical conclusions of the article,on the one hand,the policy needs to give the means to cope with the increasing rasing load of the young and middle-aged in the short term,on the other hand,it needs to implement the current economic measures in depth to deal with a series of problems brought about by the slowdown of the saving rate in the long term.