The Research On The Effects Of Demographic Change On Saving Rate In Hebei Province

Since China’s reform and opening up, the economics of Hebei growth by leaps and bounds. Meanwhile our resident saving rate also appeared serious high growth. The population structure of our province is changing. What is the relationship between population structure and the high savings rate? The article will offer us some advice.The sixth national census in 2010 provides a large amount of data for the analysis of the current population situation. Combined with the previous census data and the population of 2011, 2012, 2013, this paper analyzes the population structure changes in Hebei province in five parts. And it reveals a certain demographic changes will affect the savings rate in our province. There is a reverse relationship between saving and consumption. However, through the analysis we found that the consumption of the economy drive compared with investment in weak in Hebei province. Its contribution on economic growth is little. The tendency of residents’ consumption is flat or decline. But the tendency of household savings maintains increasing and keeps at a high level. The high saving rate affects the normal development of the financial industry and related industries in our province. The demographic factors have always been a factor that cannot be ignored. And important problems that face us in our province and even the whole country are the economy’s low developed and rapid changes in population structure for a long time. So, the article specifically analyses how the changes of population structure influence the saving rate level and explains the high saving rate by using the classic Medihgnai’s life cycle hypothesis of consumption function. It establishes the OLS model of the saving rate and population structure, and it eliminates the demographic factors of low impact or non-impact to the savings rate that may cause great error.Finally, the article point out the high savings rate is mainly caused by the unreasonable population age structure and industrial structure. Give some Suggestions in reducing the saving rate for the "demographic dividend" and incomplete pension system and the unreasonable population industrial structure.