A Study Of The Effect Of Population Age Structure On Saving Rate

With the rapid development of the current domestic economic,the domestic savings rate level has continued high.Affected by the one-child policy,the population age structure change greatly.This paper studied the relationship between the changes in population age structure and the household saving rate from the theoretial and empirical point of view.Therefore,this study can serve as a reference to develop the future population policies and economic policies.First of all,this paper constructed the theoretially intertemporal model about the relationship between household saving rate and population age structure.The results show that the uncertain relationship between household saving rate and population age structure,because the regional economic development is not the same,the change of population age structure on the trend and intensity of influence around the household savings rate is different.Secondly,this paper established a saving rate function model that is from ten provinces of relevant data between 2000 and 2014.The function included the household saving rate,the child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio.The empirical results show that the positive correlation between the ratio of children and the residents’ savings significantly,the negative correlation between the ratio of elderly dependency and the household savings rate significantly.Accordingly,the current residents pension concept did not significantly affect the household savings rate.In addition,the empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the previous and current savings ratio of residents savings rate,because there is the habit of saving of the residents.There is a significant positive correlation between the growth rate of income and savings rate,the disposable income growth rate increase will increase the household savings rate.There is a significant positive correlation between the level of social security and the household savings rate,this is because the current residents don’t trust the social security totally,more residents are willing to own pension savings.Finally,this paper established a saving rate function model that is from three regions.The eastern region includes Shanghai,Jiangsu Province,Shandong province and Guangdong Province,the central region includes Anhui Province,Heilongjiang province and Chongqing,the western region includes Guizhou Province,Shanxi Province and Qinghai provinces.The empirical results show that in the easternprovinces,the influence of the household savings rate is mainly reflected the elderly dependency effect on household savings rate,the elderly dependency ratio is higher,the household savings rate is lower.In the middle provinces,the influence of the household savings rate is mainly reflected the child dependency effect on household savings rate,the child dependency ratio is higher,the household savings rate is higher.There is no significant influence between the depedency ratio and the household savings rate on the western provinces.In addition,this paper shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the previous and current savings ratio of residents savings rate in three regions.There was a significant positive correlation between the growth rate of income and the household savings rate,namely the eastern provinces and western provinces residents’ disposable income growth rate rise will increase the household savings rate.There is a significant positive correlation between the social security level and the savings rate of the residents in the eastern provinces,namely,the improvement of social security level in the eastern provinces will increase the savings rate.