Relationships Among Age Structure, Saving Rates And Common Accounts

The variation of age structure is an important factor to affect the economy. In this century, countries in the world are all facing the influence brought by the changing of the population's age structure. Due to the special population policy, China may become an old-society before it becomes a developed country, so we have to focus more than other countries on this problem. Meanwhile, former research has indicated that the variation of the age structure is an important factor to affect the saving rate, and the "double-surplus" situation, which was caused partly by the domestic high saving rate, is an obvious factor to consider when the exchange rate policy and the interest rate policy was made. In this paper, we will do some research on the correlations between the two aspects.Based on the open-economy structure, this paper focuses on the relationships among the age structure, saving rates and the factors that affects the Chinese current account. This paper is consisted of five parts. In the first two parts, we give a brief introduction of this paper, and make a literature summary to this paper. In part three and part four, some empirical works are done to make a deep analysis between the age structure and saving rates, which indicates that the life cycle theory cannot explain some of the Chinese situations. Furthermore, in part four we induct a model which was brought forward by Herbertsson in 1999, and based on the empirical results we change the model by some econometrics methods. Finally, the results indicates that in the long term, the influence generated from the changing of the age structure far outweigh the influence resulted form the fluctuation of the exchange rate and investment rate, so when the related policies were made, the factor of the age structure should be taken in to consideration.This paper is an attempt in using both the life-cycle theory and the "double-surplus" theory to analysis the Chinese experience. Meanwhile, this paper also provides a different view for making the Chinese long-term population and RMD exchange rate reformulation policy.