| The aging of the population has a far-reaching impact on the economy and society of a country or region.It has both challenges and opportunities.On the one hand,the number of school-age labor is relatively reduced or even decreased,affecting labor productivity,which has seriously hindered the development of some industries.Meanwhile,the deepening of aging has increased the burden of social support.On the other hand,the increase in the number of elderly population has caused the increasing demand for the elderly service,which has promoted the development of the related industry.Therefore,the relationship between population aging and industrial structure is closely related.With the economic development of Jiangsu Province,living standards,health standards continue to improve,the aging of society deepening: by the end of 2016,more than 65 years in Jiangsu province resident population reached 10 million 216 thousand and 300 people,accounting for the total resident population of 12.7%,much higher than 7% of the index number.At the same time,Jiangsu province shows a "321" state in terms of industrial structure.The third industry has dominated,but some industries in the province are overcapacity.The task of eliminating backward production capacity and improving economic efficiency is still arduous.Under this background,the study of the impact of aging on the industrial structure of Jiangsu province has practical significance for further transformation and optimization of industrial structure and further development of Jiangsu's economy.Based on the statistical data of Jiangsu Province,this paper,firstly,analyses the significance of the research to the relationship of population aging and the industrial structure,hackles the relevant literature at home and abroad,sums up the main research content of internal and external scholars,and then found some possible research gaps or defects.Secondly,it expounds the theory related to population aging and industrial structure,and analyzes the mechanism of aging affecting industrial structure,which is the theoretical basis of this study.Then,based on the actual situation of Jiangsu Province,the paper analyzes the current status of aging and industrial structure in Jiangsu province.At the same time,it analyzes the influence of aging mechanism of industrial structure,and using the method of gray correlation degree,calculates the correlation degree of aging and the first,second,third industry;Then,based on the model of time series data and state space,the variable parameter model is constructed in the form of state space,respectively,of the first,second,third industry and advanced industrial structure to make regression analysis.The study found that,first,the aging of the population has played a role in promoting the first industry in Jiangsu Province,and promoted the modernization of the first industry by "forced".Second,the aging of the population has hindered the development of the second industry.The negative effect of aging to the second industry is better than the positive effect,and it has a hindrance to the second industry as a whole.Third,the aging of the population has played a role in promoting the third industry.The increase of aging population and the increase of demand for elderly services have played a positive role in the third industry,and offset the negative effects brought by the aging of population.Fourth,the aging of the population is conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure of Jiangsu province.Aging has greatly promoted the development of the aging service industry,and promoted the third industry to occupy the leading position in the three industries,which made Jiangsu's industrial structure develop from a low level to an advanced one. |
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