Determinants Of The Fertility Desire Among Reproductive-age Women

In 2016,the government initiated a full-scale second-child policy in order to increase the birth rate and retard the aging proclivity of the population.In the two years that have passed since the policy was first introduced,the national fertility rate has generally improved,but has not met expectations,and is even lower than the replacement level reported by many research institutions.According to the Sequential Decision Model,people often decide whether and when they want to have another child after the birth of their first child.This paper aims to conduct a study of the women of childbearing age who have already given birth in the X District of the downtown area of Shanghai.Employing both qualitative and quantitative methodologies,this paper will focus on factors like family income,economic status and child-rearing status to investigate the reproductive intention of families,with the aim of supporting government in formulating a more reasonable birth policy.Firstly,this paper will provide a comprehensive summary of theories related to population and the methodologies of fertility surveys.This paper will apply the Bongaarts Low Fertility Model in order to analyze the key factors affecting fertility willingness,which include two promoting factors – the fertility behavior substitution effect,and gender preference – in addition to two negative factors,namely the delay of initial reproductive age,and competitive factors.This study is based on a survey of women of childbearing age in the X area who already had a child.A total of 1,302 responses were collected.These responses answered questions pertaining,among others,to the basic situation of the individual and the family,the basic conditions of childbirth,the desire for fertility,and child-rearing.An analysis of the data,conducted with Excel and SPSS,revealed that the actual birth-rate of the subjects in the study was 1.27,and the ideal number of children was 1.45.Breaking the figure down by gender,the ideal number of boys was 0.72,and the ideal number of girls was 0.73.The number of planned children was 1.38.Surprisingly,only 11.8% of the 1,302 respondents planned to give birth again.Family economic status,parenting burden and career development were the key factors affecting fertility.But the most important reason was the "one child is enough" concept of fertility.An analysis of childcare needs found that child support and child medical care were most prominent.Finally,the analysis of child-rearing needs suggested three focus areas: government should strengthen policy advocacy and promote a public opinion atmosphere that encourages two-child families;government should emphasize top-level design,strengthening the maternity guarantee mechanism;and government should require the market,community and broader society to collaborate in persistently improving the social support system.