A Study Of Census Quality Assessment Based On Demographic Analysis

Population census is an important means to understand the population situation and make population policies.In the electronic age of information,traditional population census and population quality assessment methods are experiencing great challenges,so it is urgent to seek new methods of population census and population quality assessment.With the promotion and improvement of the electronic government,the administrative department have rich electronic administration data.The study found that there are a large number of census information in the administrative database.Register-based population census is regarded as one of the valid ways to solve the problems of traditional population census.Demographic analysis is a estimation method of the total population based on administrative data,it advantage lies in compared with the double system model based on an investigation:census data can be directly obtained from the administrative records,reduces the cost,reduce the burden of the respondents and takers,high answer rate and high data quality,no interactive deviation and the total number of national can be estimate just based on the administrative data of the birth,death,migration,convenient and quick.This is an inevitable choice.The purpose of this paper is to explore the new census quality evaluation method and the census method,based on this purpose this paper carries out research.Firstly,through comparative study and literature review,this paper summarizes the situation of using demographic analysis method and census quality assessment method in China and the United States to get the whole picture of the field.In order to learn from the international cutting-edge experience in the world,this paper makes an in-depth study of the literature based on Demographic analysis on the quality assessment of the 2000 U.S.census and comes to the conclusion that the key point of estimating the national population with demographic analysis method is that there must have administrative data that meet all the indicators in demographic analysis method,that is to say,a sound administrative record system is required.To explore the international frontier experience based on administrative data to the census,in the fourth chapter,this paper makes an in-depth study of the domestic administrative system and the Finnish administrative system,it is found that China's administrative records almost cover all the information needed for the census,which indicates that China has the basic conditions to use the administrative records for the census.Aiming at the condition of the administrative departments of our country at present is isolated,learn from Finland's well-established administrative system to build ourcountry's administrative system.In empirical research,due to the microscopic data involves privacy,we can't get it,so this paper can't carry out the one-to-one matching of data.However,it is necessary to analyze the matching decomposition theory from the microscopic level.This paper proves the conclusion that the probabilities are equal that the actual census of the country and the population obtained by the census are recorded by the administrative system,the influencing factors of census coverage error,that is the actual census count,correct census count,census error count,census omission count,net census count coverage error,factors influencing the total coverage error of census count.At the macro level,the paper estimates the net error of the sixth census by using the demographic analysis method,and the result shows that the net error of the sixth census is within the acceptable range.Finally,chapter six gives the summary of the whole paper and some suggestions and prospects.