| The population problem has always been a concern in developing and developed countries.Every country will face various demographic problems,such as demographic dividend,low birth rate,aging,gender imbalance,and so on.The main aspect of the population problem is the population structure.In the process of economic and social development,the country’s population structure has always been inseparable from economic development.The population structure will affect the changes in people’s needs for material life,which is indispensable for sustainable economic development.Ignore the impact.Therefore,a reasonable population structure is an important guarantee for sustainable economic development.Study the impact of population structure changes on economic growth,find out the main demographic factors that affect economic growth,adjust population policies,improve population structure,and make economic sustainable development.This article mainly focuses on the “The Belt and Road Initiatives” provinces as the research object.Due to the integrity of the indicator data,the panel data of the 18 provinces in the “ The Belt and Road Initiatives ” from 2003 to 2018 are selected..The population structure is mainly divided into population gender structure,population age structure,population industrial structure,population cultural structure,population urban and rural structure,and population unemployment rate Analyze the change structure at six levels,and use Arc GIS visualization to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis in time and space to study the population distribution,industrial layout and spatial consistency of economic development in the provinces of the "The Belt and Road Initiatives" economic belt.In addition,establish the gray correlation model to analyze the correlation degree of the ten selected indicators to economic growth,introduce the more correlated indicators into the spatial measurement model,establish the spatial lag model(SAR),the spatial error model(SEM)and the spatial The Dubin model(SDM)selects the best model from the three models for analysis.The results show that: First,the number of students in ordinary colleges and universities,gender ratio and other indicators have a strong correlation with economic growth,but the proportion of the number of employees in the primary industry and the urban registered unemployment rate and economic growth are not strong.Second,the model results show that gender ratio,urbanization rate,the number of ordinary higher school students,the number of employees in the secondary industry,and the number of employees in the tertiary industry have a significant impact on the development level of the "The Belt and Road Initiatives" economic belt.However,the number of employees in the primary industry,the dependency ratio of children,the dependency ratio of the elderly,and the labor population have no significant impact on the development level of the "The Belt and Road Initiatives" economic belt.From the perspective of the population institution system,the gender structure,urban-rural structure,cultural structure,and industrial structure of the population are all highly related to economic growth,and the urban-rural structure,culture,and industrial structure have a significant role in promoting economic growth,while the gender structure It has a restraining effect on economic growth.According to the results of the model,this article mainly proposes the following suggestions for the high-quality economic growth and rationalization of the population and industrial structure in the provinces of the "The Belt and Road Initiatives" economic belt: improve the security system for the elderly population;increase investment in education,popularize higher education,and improve the quality of the population;The construction of industrial bases promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure;eliminates the concept of“preferring men over women”and balances the sex ratio;promotes the development of new urbanization and improves the level of people’s livelihood security. |
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