The Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Optimization And Rationalization Of Industrial Structure In China

With the economic development and the improvement of human life expectancy,the problem of population aging has attracted widespread attention all over the world.Compared with other developed countries,China entered aging society under the condition of lower economic level and imperfect social security system,which posed great challenges to China's social development.Especially confront with "new economic normal",China's demographic dividend has disappeared gradually and the industrial structure still needs to be improved,so that the change in the population age structure will guide the direction of industrial structure adjustment.Therefore,it has great significance to analyze the influence of aging on the optimization and rationalization of industrial structure.The research follows the thinking of "theoretical analysis-empirical analysis-policy inspiration" and unfolds as follows.First,sort out and comment on the aging of the population and the industrial structure theories and relevant research at home and abroad which lay a solid theoretical foundation and support for the subsequent analysis;Second,define the concepts of aging and industrial structure optimization and rationalization,theoretically analyze the impact of aging on industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of demand and supply.Also establish a mathematical derivation model.Third,combined with actual data from China,analyze the development status and characteristics of aging and industrial structure from the national and regional levels.Then,use provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017 to establish a basic model and threshold model to perform empirical analysis.Finally,summarize the research conclusions and propose corresponding policy implications.The results of this study show that: First,in terms of the sample inspection period,the aging population has adversely affected the optimization and rationalization of China's industrial structure.Second,because of the special characteristics of China's economy,the effects of aging on the industrial structure are not same in the different region.In the eastern and western regions,the impact of aging on the optimization of industrial structure is not significant but the impact on the rationalization of industrial structure is negative which is completely opposite with the central region.Third,the effect of ageing on industrial structure will be affected by labor costs and social security level.The higher the labor costs,the greater positive effect of aging on the optimization and rationalization;the higher the level of social security,the smaller negative effect of industrial adjust.In view of this,this article proposed four policy inspirations to promote industrial restructuring basic on population ageing,accelerating the innovation-driven development strategy,actively developing the elderly industry,improving the social security system,and promoting the transfer and upgrading of industrial areas.