| In recent years,total fertility rate has remained at a very low level,and has not improved as a result of the opening up of the universal two-child policy.In predicting the future fertility level,most scholars attribute it to the low fertility desire of women.But in fact,besides fertility desire,the change of marriage and childbearing pattern also has certain influence on fertility.Under the new situation,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the change of marriage and childbearing pattern of the fertile women in Shanghai.Based on the change of the pattern of marriage and childbearing pattern of the fertile women in Shanghai,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the number of women of childbearing age and the fertility status at present in Shanghai,and on the basis of predicting the change of the fertility frequency at the target age,to explore the influence of the change of marriage and childbearing pattern on the population forecast.It is found that the marriage and childbearing pattern of the registered permanent residence population in Shanghai has changed,the age of first marriage and first childbearing has increased obviously,and the prediction of the registered permanent residence population in Shanghai is influenced by the delay of the age of first marriage and first childbearing,the number of births should be significantly reduced.In view of the situation that the age of marriage and childbearing is delayed and the level of childbearing is not high,this paper puts forward the following recommendations: first,to increase publicity efforts to create a healthy age of marriage and childbearing and inclusive friendly atmosphere;the second is to improve public services to reduce the burden of family care;the third is to eliminate gender discrimination in employment and promote equal employment for women;and the fourth is to draw on international experience to formulate incentive policies. |
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