Quantitative Analysis Of Fertility Willing And Influencing Factors Of Reproductive Age Population In Shanxi Province Under Theuniversal Two-child Policy

Objective:In order to provide reference for improving the population policy in Shanxi Province and promoting the healthy development of the population,this paper explores the current situation and influencing factors of the fertility intention of the population of childbearing age in Shanxi Province after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.Methods:A questionnaire was designed to investigate the fertility intention and influencing factors of the population of childbearing age in Shanxi Province.From September 2020 to November 2020,"Questionnaire Star"was used to investigate the childbearing age population between 18 and 49 years old in 11cities and prefecture-level cities in Shanxi Province.Those who have had two children with their current spouse were not included in this survey.The contents of the survey include the basic situation of the respondents,fertility status,fertility desire and fertility reasons.SPSS26.0 software was used to manage and analyze the data.Classification data use rate or composition ratio description,comparison between groups using X~2test;In the multivariate analysis of the influence of demographic characteristics on fertility intention,the regression method was used to conduct ordinal and multinomial logistic regression.Inspection level isα-0.05.Results:1.A total of 1,740 valid questionnaires were received,among which 1,327(76.2%)had two ideal children,and 1,211(69.5%)had one male and one female ideal children.In terms of ideal fertility intention,men hope to have more children than women;For people aged 40 and under,the number of children they want to have increases as they get older;Non-agricultural,married people of childbearing age want to have more children.2.Only 410(32.0%)people of married childbearing age who have already had a child said they planned to have a second child,582(45.4%)people said they would not have a second child,and the rest 290 people said they were not sure(22.6%).The disordered multi-classification logistic regression analysis showed that,taking the unwillingness to have a second child as the reference level,compared with the people of the childbearing age of 41-49 years old,the likelihood of the people of the childbearing age of 26-40years old being willing to have a second child was 0.893～2.395 times higher than that of the people of the childbearing age of 41-49 years old,while the difference of the group of 18-25 years old was not statistically significant.At the same time,people aged between18 and 40 are 17.304 times to 2.081 times more likely to have a second child.The probability of willing to have a second child in rural areas is 1.331 times higher than that in urban areas,and the probability of uncertain having a second child is also 80.7%higher than that in urban areas.Compared with people with no fixed monthly income,people of childbearing age with a monthly income of 2000 yuan～,4000 yuan～,6000yuan～,or≥8000 yuan are 52.6%～65.7%less likely to have a second child,while there is no statistically significant difference between low-income people with a monthly income less than 2000 yuan and people with no fixed monthly income.Those taking care of their first child by grandparents were 46.9%more likely to have a second child than those taking care of their first child themselves.3.In terms of the gender of the second child,the gender of the first child has a significant impact on them.Compared with those who have no restriction on the gender of the second child,the expectation of the first child being a girl to the second child being a boy increases by 2.984 times,and that of the first child being a boy to the second child being a girl increases by 5.306 times.4.The interval between the second child and the second child:46.6%believe that three years is the most appropriate interval between the second child and the second child.Orded multi-classification logistic regression analysis shows that males,18-30 years old,rural areas,master’s degree or above,monthly income of 2,000 to 4,000 yuan,non-only-child prefer to have a shorter interval between the second child and the second child.Women,41 to 49 years old,urban,college and below education,no fixed income,the only child is willing to have a second child longer time interval.5.The main reasons influencing the intention to have a second child are economic and child care problems.Conclusion:The ideal number of children of childbearing age population is mostly 2(76.2%),and the ideal gender composition of children is mostly 1 male and 1 female(69.5%).After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,people of childbearing age between 26-40 years old are more willing to have a second child with age,and their willingness to be uncertain about having a second child decreases,while 41-49 years old are more willing to have a second child;rural areas are willing.Perhaps it is not certain that the willingness to have a second child is higher than that in urban areas;people with low incomes,no fixed monthly income,and grandparents who take care of one child are more willing to have a second child.For those who are unwilling or unsure whether to have a second child,the main reason is financial and child care problems.It can be seen that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy has solved the worries about the policy of"want to give birth but cannot give birth"to people of childbearing age,but it has not solved the problem that people actually"want to give birth but dare not give birth".To increase the willingness of people of childbearing age to have a second child,it is necessary to start with the reasons why people dare not give birth,and to effectively address the concerns of people of childbearing age.