Land Use Change Prediction And Risk Evaluation In Jinjiang City

Jinjiang is located on the southeast coast of Fujian.As China's reforming and opening up,Jinjiang's social economy grows by leaps and bounds,however,Jinjiang has experienced unprecedented development and changes in the process of industrialization and urbanization.The contradiction between the limited land resources and the development needs from society,economy and environment has been increasingly prominent There's a significant change in the land use in Jinjiang.Between urbanization and urban construction lags behind the economy,floating population increase sharply.And the effects of natural and human factors such as urbanization accelerated growth,makes the Jinjiang city development land expanding.The land contradiction is more and more prominent,and the regional land use changes a lot.The change of Jinjiang city land use is a representative like the industrial coastal cities.Therefore,the dynamic simulation of land use change in Jinjiang is good for the reasonable layout of coastal industrial cities development space,the efficient development and utilization of regional land resources and management.And it is suitable for the protection of the ecological environment and provide essential guidance for a government.Likewise,processing for Jinjiang resource planning policy can provide a compelling science basis.With the support from idiris17.0 and Arcgis10.2 software,this paper uses the TM/ETM remote-sensing image of 30m resolution ratio covering the Jinjiang area in 1990,2000 and 2010,takes the remote sensing interpretation land use data as the data source for the lad use changes in the history,applies the MLP-ANN model in the LCM model to analyze the potential of the land utilization changes in Jinjiang and at last predicts the land use quantity and distribution of Jinjiang in the future 50 years based on the Markov Chain Model.Meanwhile,it adopts the LCM model and Logistic-CA model to make prediction simulation,carries out dynamic simulation research on the land us changes of Jinjiang in 2020,2030,2040,2050 and 2060,makes comparison and research and evaluates the ecological risk of the future land use structure.It mainly comes to the following conclusions:(1)The 2010 simulation result of LCM model has the random Kappa indicator of 84.12%,location Kappa indicator of 87.31%and quantity Kappa indicator of 88.01%and standard Kappa indicator of 83.28%.The 2010 simulation result of Logistic-CA model has the random Kappa indicator of 81.72%,location Kappa indicator of 86.67%,quantity Kappa indicator of 85.51%and standard Kappa indicator of 80.67%.For the Kappa coefficients,results of Logistic-CA model are all slightly higher than those of LCM model.(2)In the prediction of 2020?2060 Jinjiang land use area changes in LCM model and Logistic-CA model,except the garden plot and bare land,LCM model and Logistic-CA has similar prediction of the changing trend.In the future 50 years,Jinjiang land use prediction result shows that the construction land will increase while the water area,forest land and cultivated land will decrease.Bare land in the prediction of LCM model will decrease while in the prediction of Logistic-CA model will maintains the same.Garden lot presents the decreasing trend in the prediction of LCM model while shows the increasing trend in the prediction of the Logistic-CA model.(3)In the future 50 years,although the space of Jinjiang land use changes in the LCM model is not completely the same with the Logistic-CA model in terms of the distribution,the two models show same hot spot region for the future land use changes.(4)The ecological risk of the land use structure shows the increasing trend.On the basis of the prediction result of LCM model,it calculates the ecological risk indicator of land use structure which increase from 0.202339 in 1990 to 0.254272 in 2060 and feature the increase rate of 25.67%from 1990 to 2060 and annual average increase rate of 3.27‰.On the basis of the prediction result of Logistic-CA,it calculates the ecological risk indicator of land use structure which shows the continuous increase trend from 1990 to 2060.The ecological risk strength indicator in 1990 is 0.202339 and it rises to 0.256291 in 2060,featuring the increase rate of 26.67%and the annual average increase rate of 3.38‰.Generally speaking,the ecological risk of Jingjiang land use structure shows the increasing trend,which indicates the ecological safety status is becoming increasingly serious and the scientific sustainable development of Jinjiang land use system is affected.In a conclusion,the above shows that due to the elaboration of the social economy as well as the increase in both native and outsider population,it accelerated the urbanization process,that,lead to the significant increase of the construction land area in the research area.The agricultural structure adjustment and construction land occupied also result in the decrease of the cultivated land,forest land,and water.Therefore,when we focus on the land use planning and management of Jinjiang in the future,we need to concentrate on the land conservation,partially protecting paddy field,dry land,and forest land.At the same time,we need to strengthen the forest protection to change Jinjiang into an ecological city to achieve the unity between implement land use and ecological sustainability.