Research On China's Economic And Trade Potential To Central And Eastern Europe

The central and Eastern Europe is an important hub to connect the Eurasia.The economic and trade relations between China and central and Eastern Europe are rising with the advance and implementation of “The Belt and Road Initiatives”,coupled with the “16+1” cooperation mechanism in China and Eastern Europe,bilateral economic and trade cooperation move to a new height,include promoted infrastructure construction,increased cultural exchanges and promoted regional economic and trade cooperation.To the central and Eastern European,the strategy brought important opportunities for development.For China,domestic excess capacity and capital need to output,at the same time,the central and Eastern European are also very hope to attract investment from China.The area of central and Eastern Europe is about 1/3 of European Union(EU),the population is about 1/4 of EU,but the economy is less than 1/10 of EU.In 2015,China's exports to the central and Eastern European amounted to 42 billion and 196 million dollars,the non-financial investment totaled 1billion and 977 million dollars,the scale of export and investment are also small,but it also means that there are more export and investment opportunities in central and Eastern Europe.Therefore,in the background of“The Belt and Road Initiatives”,study on the economic and trade development potential between China and central and Eastern Europe is very necessary.Through combing the relevant literature and theory,sorting many relevant report and data,this paper comprehensively analyzed the economic and trade development between China and central and Eastern Europe from two aspects of export and investment,and also use the trade union index,the complementarity index and the direct investment performance index to quantitatively analyze the current situation of the economic and trade development between China and central and Eastern Europe.The study found that the level of trade complementarity between China and central and Eastern Europe is very high,the level of investment performance to central and Eastern Europe is very low.On this basis,this paper from the two aspects of export and investment to do empirical analysis.This paper use the panel data of 1995-2015 to analyze the influencing factors of China's exports to central and Eastern Europe,and use the panel data of2004-2015 to analyze the influencing factors of China's investment to central and Eastern Europe.The empirical shows that there are many important factors influenced China's exports to central and Eastern Europe,such as China's gross domestic product(GDP),the GDP of central and Eastern Europe,the similarity of demand,the degree of dependence on imports in central and Eastern Europe and whether they have joined the EU,and there are many important factors influenced China's investment to central and Eastern Europe,such as the GDP of central and Eastern Europe,the relative wage level in central and Eastern Europe,the degree of dependence on foreign trade in central and Eastern Europe and the last year's stock of investment to central and Eastern Europe.Then,according to the empirical results,this paper estimates China's potential of export and investment to central and Eastern Europe,the results show that China has great potential in export and investment to central and Eastern Europe.Especially,China has both large potential of export and investment in some countries,such as Bosnia-Herzegovina,Czech,Lithuania,Macedonia,Poland and Slovakia,at the same time,China just has both smaller potential of export and investment in Albania.Thus,we can see that China's has large potential of economic and trade to central and Eastern Europe.Finally,this paper draws some relevant conclusions and policy advice.