Research On The Reliability Of Enterprise Supply Chain Under Uncertain Environment

Supply chain system (SC) is a complex network structure formed by multi-nodes enterprises. Due to the complexity, diversity and uncertainty of environment, SC is inevitably facing the problem of unreliability during operation. This paper will analyze and optimize the reliability of SC model from the point of view of the needs of market and the structure of SC itself by using the theory of stochastic processes, Markov theory, and optimization theory based on the vibration of uncertain environment factors.In this paper, it firstly discusses the reason that the appearance of demand uncertainty through analyzing the enterprise supply chain system. Then, base on the volatility of SC, the paper goes on to exploring the affects of demand uncertainty on the reliability of SC system by the aspects of quantity delivery and delivery batch. It is concluded that the reliability of delivery time and quantity delivery of SC can be improved effectively with the help of the method of multi-batch delivery. At the same time, It also get the overall reliability and the branched chain’s reliability calculation formulas of the enterprise SC under the fluctuation of market by solving the state equation which is get by establishing a typical2class SC model through the application of the stochastic processes and Markov theory. All of which provide optimization measures for the coordination and control of demand uncertainty SC.Secondly, through the application of reliability theory and Markov process, this paper explains the reliability of typical SC model from the point of SC structure itself. Furthermore, considering environment and uncertainty factors, the structure of SC is redesigned from the point of view of the reliability, cost, time and emergency order. It can be said that the redesign method can be a theoretical basis for the SC improvement.Finally, the paper explores the measures to improve SC reliability by optimizing the demand uncertainty and structure uncertainty supply chain system from the perspectives of JIT&coordinated strategy, agile SC and periodic repair strategy.In a word, because of the complexity and specialization of SC, it is necessary for managers take actives or make decisions from all angles. Through the study of the paper, improvers can get some research ideas for optimization of core enterprise supply chain which is inevitably ensure the reliability of SC.