Research Of H District Government's Debt Risk Identification,Evaluation And Prevention

2015,China's local government debt gets to the peak of repayment.With debt risk increasing due to the economy decline and local fiscal revenue decrease,local governments has to focus on how to prevent and resolve the debt risk.Firstly the paper defines the local government debt,introduces the related conception and the theory of local government debt risk and risk management.Then it shows the profiles of"H"District local government,analyzed the causes of its debts,and use the factor analysis method to identify H District local government debt.The fourth chapter introduces the necessity,principles and objectives of H District government debt risk evaluation system,make the analyze for this debt risk evaluation system.Then it makes evaluation for debt risk of H District government with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),then it's concluded that the government debt risk level is 25%(dangerous),and we need take relative actions to prevent from this debt risk.For the dangerous debt risk situation of H District government,this paper give the propositions respectively from 'debt loan' factor,'debt use'factor and 'debt repayment'factor.From 'debt loan',we propose H District government to establish effective borrowing constraint system and standardize the management system of local finance;From 'debt use',we propose H District government to control use of debt capital flow and strengthen the transparency of local government debt use,the management and supervision of local government debt;From 'debt repayment',it is recommended to finalize debt risk constraint system and clear the debt of local financing platform.This paper also suggests H district government to establish debt risk warning system,to prevent and resolve the debt risk.