Research On Local Government Debt Risk

Certain recent,foreign debt crisis have frequently broken out,especially the global financial turmoil triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis,which have set an alarm and made governments attach great importance to the local government debts.Our country has conducted a comprehensive audit to the local government debt since 2011: the first audit result shows that up to the end of 2010,the scale of total local government debt is 10.7 trillion Yuan,of which the county level is 2.8 trillion Yuan,up to 26.53%.The recent audit result shows that until June 2013,total local government debt is 17.9 trillion Yuan,of which the county level is 5.41 trillion Yuan,accounting for 30.22%,which rose by 3.69% compared with 2010.The scale of the local government debt increases rapidly,with the county government debt risk situation especially grim.Since the imbalances tax allocation coupled with the lack of financing channels,the local fiscal revenue declines,and the transfer payment's not in place have deepened the contradiction of the local governments' income and expenditure,as a result showing the rise of the local government financial pressure.Because of the imperfect government debt management system,lack of effective methods of debt statistics and supervision and management,the total amount of local government debt is hard to get,so it is difficult to assess the risk of local government debt accurately.Achievements appraisal system focuses on the assessment of GDP,lacking of local government debt risk evaluation index,which leads to the phenomenon of blind borrowing,combined with the weak solvency of county government,and debt risk situation is more serious.With a K County government debt risk analysis as an example in this text,a research was made on the local government debt risk situation to find out the great influence aspects about it,and to put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.All these would have practical significance for guarding against local government debt risk.Total six parts well explain the topic.The first part introduces the background and significance of the research of local government debt risk and the research status of local government debt risk at home and abroad.Under a background of debt scale continuously enlarged for making up the lack of construction,the debt risk is increasing,and the research of local government debt risk is beneficial to control debt risk,avoid debt crisis,and maintain economic steady growth and social stability as well.The second part introduces the relative concepts of local government debt risk,from the definition of local government debt and classification to the definition and classification of local government debt risk.In the third part,according to the various data released by the audit,the present situation of local government debt risk,the risk status of local investment and financing platform,the current situation of government debt risk in K County,and the risk status of it's local investment and financing platform were analyzed.The fourth part introduces about local government debt risk assessment methods.Through the analysis and comparison,this part adopted methods of the government department measure and calculate debt risk,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),which could reflect the panorama of local government debt risk from multiple perspectives.Based on the data of local government debt's management system,this part used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method to evaluate the risk of government debt in K County in 2013-2015.In order to mirror the real government debt risk situation in K County to get more appropriate conclusions,from the selection of risk evaluation index to affirm the weights of it,and affirm the risk level,this part conducted a lot of preparatory work through questionnaire,comparative analysis and so on.And then,according to the maximum membership principle,we could affirm K County's risk level between 2013 and 2015.Using government department measure and calculate debt risk method to analyze the debt risk of K County in 2015,compared with its nearby county,the debt risk situation of K County could be comprehensively got.Based on analyses above sum up some key problems affecting the local government debt risk,the fifth part put forward countermeasures to prevent and control the local government debt risk.The last part summarized the whole text.