Hog Price Abnormal Fluctuation Calculate And Causes Study

Since the hog market opened in 1985,the price fluctuation of hog under market economy has become normal.In recent years,with the complexity of the market environment,the abnormal fluctuation of the hog price is frequent in China.This article taking the fluctuation of hog price as the research object,scientifically defines the connotation of the abnormal fluctuation of the hog price,and analyzes the characteristics and causes of the abnormal fluctuation of the hog price accordingly.We constructed the abnormal index of hog price and carry out scenario test,and used the hog price in Heilongjiang as the research sample to calculate the abnormal fluctuation index of hog price,specifically analyze the performance of abnormal price fluctuations of hog in terms of fluctuation amplitude and frequency,and empirically analyze external shock factors that cause abnormal fluctuations in hog price.Based on the calculation results of the abnormal fluctuation index of hog price,constructing early-warning index of hog price fluctuations and forecasting and warning,and a theoretical basis and application tools were provided for the relevant government departments to monitor and regulate the market.Taking national statistical data as the research data,using the economic growth theory,and expected management theory combing the historical laws of the price fluctuation in China.Using Chow-test to identify the structural change points of hog price fluctuations,and summarize the characteristics of abnormal fluctuations in hog prices.Using Equilibrium price theory to extract Internal factors such as production costs,substitute prices,consumer income,price levels,and price expectations,and external factors such as internal factors and policy adjustments,hog disease,natural disasters,and international trade that cause price fluctuations in hog prices.Using X-12 seasonal adjustment and H-P Filtering model,we decompose the fluctuation of hog price and analyze the stochastic factors that cause the fluctuation of hog price.Using the Mathematical modeling,we constructed the hog price abnormal volatility index.Using multivariable linear regression model,empirically analyze the influencing factors of abnormal price fluctuations in hog.Using the ARIMA model,predict the future price trend of hog in Heilongjiang Province and determine the risk of abnormal fluctuations.The article has three main parts.The first part is the systematic understanding of abnormal fluctuations in hog price.Use the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to systematically define the connotation of abnormal fluctuations in hog prices and refine the characteristics and causes of abnormal fluctuations in hog price;In-depth analyze the influence of abnormal price fluctuation of hog price on hog industry and the express paradigm requirements of abnormal price fluctuations.The second part is the construction and applicability test of the abnormal price index model of hog.Using theoretical modeling method,we constructed hog price abnormal volatility index and hog price calculation model under the two market conditions.The scenario test is applied to test and correct the hog price calculation model under two conditions.The third part is the empirical analysis of the abnormal fluctuations of hog price in Heilongjiang province.Based on the hog price calculation model,calculate and define the critical value of abnormal price fluctuation of hog and calculate abnormal price fluctuation index of hog in Heilongjiang Province;Using the method of empirical analysis to analyze the influencing factors of abnormal price fluctuations of hog in Heilongjiang Province,and then forecast and early warning the risk of abnormal fluctuations in hog prices in Heilongjiang Province.Through the research article,the following main points and conclusions are formed:(1)After 2006,structural change occurred in China's hog price fluctuations,the frequency and volatility of fluctuations increased.(2)In Heilongjiang Province,the hog price fluctuates significantly.At the same time,they show abnormal fluctuation and abnormal frequency.Extraordinary fluctuation is particularly serious after 2007.(3)Among the many factors that influence the hog price fluctuation,the sharp changes in industrial policies,hog disease,natural disasters are the main causes of the hog price abnormal fluctuations.Trade warfare is a potential risk of abnormal fluctuations in hog prices.(4)The growth of the South hog north raising and the northern hog southern shipping trend may cause short-term impact on the hog price in Heilongjiang Province.In 2018,the price of hog in Heilongjiang Province will has the risk of abnormal fluctuations of Level?.According to the research conclusions,the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to deal with the questions of hog price abnormal fluctuation in China from the aspects of establishing hog price early warning system centered on the hog price abnormal fluctuation,improving the prevention and control system of hog epidemic,improving the natural disaster insurance system for hog breeding,orderly advance the large-scale hog breeding.