Early Warning Study On Price Fluctuation Of Guangdong Pigs

The Guangdong pig industry has been affected by the SARS epidemic in 2003,the high fever in 2006,and the “swine flu” H1N1 in 2009,which has caused the pig industry to experience unusual shocks.The results are reflected in the price of pork on the market.Abnormal fluctuations in piglet prices,volatility in pig slaughter prices,and pig-to-food ratios in farming,sow stocks,and number of pigs.The abnormal fluctuations in the price of live pigs have a significant impact on the daily consumption of Guangdong consumers,which has brought unfavorable factors to the consumption level of Guangdong residents.China's feed industry statistics system shows that in 2017,the total feed output of Guangdong was 29.7 million tons,a year-on-year growth rate of 5.25%.Among them,the feed output of pigs was 13.56 million tons,with a growth rate of 12.01%,ranking first in the country.The number of pigs produced in Guangdong is also at the top level in the country.In 2017,it was 350.319 million heads respectively and the corresponding pork production was 2,621,900 tons respectively.It can be seen from the coverage of the Guangdong pig industry that the abnormal fluctuations in the price of live pigs in Guangdong will have an impact on consumers,feed industries,pig farmers and processing enterprises related to pig products.Based on the basic theory of economic forecasting and early warning,this study analyzes the factors affecting the fluctuation of pork prices in Guangdong.Through the comprehensive analysis of the literature,combined with the statistical analysis and combined model,combined with the research method of scenario analysis,we find out the fluctuation of pork prices in Guangdong in recent years.Characteristics and laws.Systematic research: the status quo of Guangdong pig industry,the basic characteristics of Guangdong hog price fluctuation,how to construct the Guangdong hog price warning model,how to make recommendations on regulating Guangdong hog price fluctuations and improving the early warning mechanism.Through research,it is found that the inherent reason for the cyclical fluctuation of the price of live pigs in Guangdong is that farmers who are affected by market signals have made choices for regulating production.The direct reason is that the participants in the live pig market pay changes in transaction costs.The fundamental reason is the supply and demand in the market.The constant balance of the role of seasonal fluctuations is the behavior of consumers in response to changes in pork demand and farmers' response to the price of pigs on the market;the reason for random fluctuations is the disorder caused by sudden events to the supply of pigs on the market.In this way,the Guangdong pig price warning model was constructed,and the early warning signal system was used to make the warning results more visual.Finally,on the basis of fully considering the price fluctuations of Guangdong pigs and the status quo of early warning mechanism,this paper puts forward suggestions for improving the data collection and construction of information dissemination channels for the construction of Guangdong hog price warning mechanism,and proposes a sound Guangdong hog price structure for regulating Guangdong hog price fluctuations.The system and recommendations to give full play to the role of the hog futures market.