Study On The Fluctuation Of China’s Pig Production And Its Early Warning Control

The pig is an important staple agricultural product and one of the most important products of theFood Basket Program. In recent years, the acute fluctuation of pig production and price has showedcertain influence on the stable and healthy development of economy and society. In the study, China’spig price and production fluctuation and the influencing factors were analyzed, and the pig productionclimate index system was established for early warning of pig production and price fluctuation, and thecontrol measures of pig production in China were also evaluated to propose the policy recommendationsfor further improving the early warning control system of the pig industry.Although pig price fluctuation was a normal phenomenon under market economy conditions,compared with America, the fluctuation of China’s pig price was more violent and showed significantseasonal and cyclical. Pig price fluctuations were the result of periodic imbalance between supply anddemand. From a long-term perspective, for the rigid increase of population, and relatively stableincreases of income, change in pig crop was the main factor for fluctuation of pig price. While in theshort term, because of farmer weakness in market bargaining power, in addition to the productionfactors, demand changes for seasonal changes and holiday as well as the cost changes resulted from thefeed price change were the main factors for the fluctuations in the price of pigs. Adaptation to thechanges in market demand and timely monitoring of production were the basic premise to control thepig price.In recent30years, China’s pig production experienced4stages, e.g., initial development stage,comprehensive development stage, structural adjustment stage and upgrading stage. As the scaleproduction level increasing, the pig production region has transferred from Eastern China to CentralChina and Southern China and the feed cost was significantly increased. As the development of China’spig production, the breed of China’s pig production has experienced significant changes and the currentmainstream breed has kept consistence with the foreign advanced breed. But for vast pig producersresulted in different production ways, the randomness of production planning adjustment and poorregularity of pig’s turnover further enlarged the market price fluctuations and it was the internal cause offrequent fluctuation of pig industry in China. Among different-scale farm households, the pig croppingfluctuations of backyard farmers and large-scale farm households contributed more to the overallfluctuations of China’s pig cropping rate and showed impact on increasing fluctuations. Thedetermining the pig crops number by the producer was sensitive to production and price, and thedecision activities showed significant characters of behind-time. The small-scale and medium-scalefarm households contributed less to the fluctuations, which provided reliable data support for thedevelopment of appropriate scale pig production.The pig production climate index could comprehensively reflect the change trend of China’s pigproduction and price. According to the interactive effects between pig price and production fluctuation,the peaks and troughs were2-6months in advance and significantly superior to the early warning only by ratio between the pig price and feed price. Since2009, China’s pig production climate index showedthe boom-downward trend and while currently the early warning index is in the "green light" interval,the future trend should be paid close attention.Since2007, China’s government had issued a series of macro-control measures for pig production,but the results indicated that the policy effect showed a downward trend. Finally, the suggestions wereproposed, e.g., increase the national financial support, establish and improve the government publicinformation service platform, strengthen the information monitoring and early warning, improve theresponse measures of pig control plan, establish national pig industry regulation fund, strengthen pigsdisease prevention and control, support the moderate scale pig production development, speed up thepace of pig industry development, and explore the establishment of hog futures or long-term tradingsystem for reducing the uncertainty in the producing process and alleviating the production fluctuation.