Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies Based On Survival Analysis Method

With the advent of the new normal economic situation in China,the listed companies are facing new challenges.How to deal with Finance Crisis is directly related to the survival or destruction of listed companies.As a representative group of Chinese enterprises,the listed companies have paid more and more attention to their operating conditions,especially on the financial difficulties of the listed companies.The health degree of the financial situation of the enterprise directly affects the survival and development of the enterprises.For the listed companies,the financial health degree also determines the confidence of the investors.The financial crisis will affect the development of the enterprises,reduce the confidence of the investors and increase the difficulty of the financing of the enterprises in the banks.The enterprise's financial crisis is a process of gradual formation,gradually developing and deteriorating.It is of great significance for enterprises and their stakeholders to find out the signs of the financial crisis and predict the changing trend of financial risk in time.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign crisis early warning research,this paper takes the manufacturing listed companies as the research object and whether it is specially dealt with due to financial anomaly(ST)as the definition standard of financial crisis company.From 2015 to 2017,A-share manufacturing listed companies in accordance with the ratio of 1:1 selected 66 financial normal companies and 66 financial crisis companies and special treatment for the first three years of data as an estimated sample.On the basis of the financial index system,the Company incorporated the corporate governance and the equity structure index to construct the index system,and initially identified 8 including profitability,solvency,operational capacity,development capability,cash flow capability,risk ability,corporate governance and ownership structure Aspects of the financial early warning indicators.SPSS 20.0 were used to test the significance of the selected test and correlation test,and ultimately determine the eight warning indicators.The COX regression model was used to construct the prediction model,and the final form of the COX model was obtained by using the survival analysis.According to the estimation results of the model,the protective factors and risk factors influencing the financial crisis were analyzed,and the prediction ability of the model was tested by using the estimated samples and the test samples respectively.The comprehensive accuracy rates were 82.13%and 80.21%respectively:the same samples The results show that the prediction effect is not as good as the Cox regression model:finally,the financial data of ten listed companies have been selected for ten years,and the change process of the financial risk calendar has been dynamically demonstrated,which shows the dynamic of the survival analysis method Ability to predict.Therefore,compared with other financial crisis early warning model,survival analysis method is more intuitive and effective and can dynamically analyze the financial risk changes,the financial crisis early warning research has a greater reference value.