Empirical Analysis Of Financial Distress Early Warning Of P2P Online Lending Platform Based On Cox Survival Analysis Model

In recent years,the combination of Internet technology and finance has not only innovated traditional financing channels,but also made the transaction easy and fast.The P2P lending platform is a typical representative of the combination of Internet technology and financial.The P2P lending platform provides for micro enterprise and individuals a new channel to loan,and eases the plight that financing is difficult and expensive.As the number of P2P lending platforms increase,the lack of management experience,risk control ability and country's regular policy,network loan risk is growing.By February 2018,there were 6,054 P2P lending platforms in total,and nearly 70%of them were in financial difficulties due to all kinds of problems.More and more P2P lending platforms are in financial distress,which greatly threatens the financial security of investors,and also makes the whole P2P lending industry in huge credit risks.This paper will treat risk factors leading P2P lending platforms in financial distress as samples.Firstly,analyze the situation of domestic P2P lending platforms,and summarize risk factors leading P2P lending platforms in financial distress.Then,300 P2P lending platforms were selected as samples.By using the life table method of SPSS24.0 software,explore the life time rule of P2P lending platforms.By using KW test,KM test and LR analysis,the higher reference yield increases the probability of P2P lending platforms being in financial distress,longer investment cycle,trusteeship,and regulatory association reduces the probability of P2P lending platforms being in financial distress.Finally,construct Cox model,and quantify risk factors leading P2P lending platforms in financial distress,as well as estimate P2P lending platforms'survival probability.Through the empirical analysis,the author hopes to provide a method to recognize risk factors leading P2P lending platforms for investors,industry regulators and the platform operators.And helps investors to make rational investment decisions.Finally,can promote P2P lending industry to have a healthy development.