The Measurement And Comparison Of The Provincial Financial Cycle In China

First of all,this paper sorts out the theory of financial cycle,and introduces the influence mechanism and action condition of the financial cycle on the business cycle.Secondly,it introduces and analyzes the measurement method of the theory of the financial cycle and the way of data processing,summarizes the related literature of calculating the Chinese financial cycle by static method,and introduces the different indexes selected by different authors.Then,using the research results of the existing literature,using the data published by the Statistics Bureau of China,the growth rate of real credit,real credit/actual GDP and real house price three are selected,and the BP filtering method of asymmetric filtering of full sample length is used to extract the periodic term of financial data,and the financial cycle index is synthesized by the simple weighted average method.The results show that although the data are not the same as those of other authors,the trend of the financial cycle is the same,which enhances the credibility of the results obtained in this paper.The process is repeated,the data of 30 provinces and cities in China are obtained,and the financial cycle of various provinces and cities of China is extracted.The related images are drawn and compared in their respective economic cycles.Then the financial cycle synchronization of each province and other provinces is calculated by compiling the index of the consistency of the financial cycle,and the comparison chart of the financial cycle and the economic cycle is drawn.It is not found that every province and province has synchronization with the national financial cycle,in which the financial cycle of Shanxi province and most of the provinces and cities is reverse cycle,and the financial cycle of Guizhou province and most of the provinces and cities is more independent,and the financial cycle of Guizhou province has a weak impact on the economic cycle.Finally,based on the theory of the impact of the financial cycle,the reasons for the formation of the two provinces are analyzed.The theory of the financial cycle proposed by Borio,which is now highly accepted,is to combine the price of credit,leverage and credit collateral to synthesize the financial cycle,which is related to the economic cycle's explanatory power and the price of credit collateral,although the price of real estate is a good collateral in the world,but at the provincial level,.because Economic structure,geographical factors and other reasons,the rate of urbanization in different provinces is low,the proportion of the real estate industry in some provinces is low,not the main collateral of credit,but the mineral resources in Shanxi and Guizhou are rich,the state-owned enterprises have strong advantages,the government has great influence on the economy,so the credit collateral is not based on real estate,so it is not based on the real estate.The financial cycle of real estate prices as a credit collateral price will reduce the explanatory power of the economy.On this basis,I get relevant conclusions.First of all,we need to consider the role of financial factors while making macro economic policies.The financial cycle is a better way for financial factors.Secondly,credit as the representative of finance will have a great influence on the distribution of resources.Therefore,in the process of financial policy making,it can be supported by guiding credit to achieve support.The purpose of a certain industry is:Third,in the process of calculating the financial cycle,it is necessary to choose the representative of credit collateral according to the industrial structure of different provinces according to the different industrial structure,and the credit collateral close to the industrial structure will enhance the dissolution of the financial cycle for the economic cycle.